Direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are “the best of the hypotheses”, but without Zelensky or Putin – and without “fast success”

by Andrea
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How to decipher these dizzying days of diplomacy in the Ukraine War

The Ukrainian President challenged the Russian leader to meet “personally” in Istanbul, but “Putin said nowhere that he plans to meet” with Zelensky. “Kremlin intends to send representatives and the Ukrainians also seem to be planning to send representatives,” so “at best we will watch the beginning of direct negotiations” in Istanbul – only and only

The bar is higher than ever. At the end of three and a half years of the large -scale invasion of Ukraine, more than a decade after the Vladimir Putin regime ordered the Annexation of the Ukrainian Peninsula of Crimea, the first direct meeting between the two belligerent sides may happen this week.

It is, at least, in this hypothesis that several leaders are betting, starting with US President Donald Trump. “President Putin of Russia does not want to have a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, but gather on Thursday in Turkey to negotiate a possible end of the blood bath,” Trump wrote on his social truth on Sunday. “Ukraine must agree with this immediately! At least they will be able to determine whether or not an agreement is possible and, if not, European leaders and the US will know how everything is and can proceed in accordance!”

Putin’s proposal for a meeting with the Ukrainians took place not even 24 hours after a new meeting of the so-called coalition of the arranged countries, including France, the United Kingdom Germany and Poland, on Saturday, in the Ukrainian capital, at the end of which Moscow proposed a “unconditional” ceasefire of 30 days under penalty of Putin’s government.

Trump agreed with NATO allies, or earlier, Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, agreed with NATO allies, before the US president makes use of his social network to ask Ukraine leader to accept Putin’s proposal for a direct meeting between the parties. And Volodymyr Zelensky wasted no time to enjoy the cue.

“I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday-personally,” wrote the Ukrainian President at X, former Twitter. “I hope that this time the Russians do not find excuses.” But as hopeful that they deposit the potential encounter, optimism may be excessive, he indicates to CNN Oleg Ignatov, especially given that “Putin didn’t say anywhere that plans to meet Zelensky.”

“It was Zelensky who proposed the meeting to Putin, in response to the proposal of the latter to start direct conversations between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Turkey,” says the analyst of the International Crisis Group to Russia. “Kremlin has clarified that they intend to send representatives to Istanbul. And the Ukrainians also seem to be planning to send representatives, according to the western media. But there is no talk of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky.”

Türkiye Mediator, Case Firefire

Confirmation, the meeting will take place in Istanbul, Turkey, where NATO leaders will be gathered between Wednesday and Thursday. In preparation for this summit, the Turkish President called the French homologist Emmanuel Macron over the weekend to discuss the “historical turning point that has been achieved in the efforts to end the war between Ukraine and Russia”, arguing that this is an “opportunity that has to be used”.

“Turkey is ready to provide all kinds of support, including being host of negotiations, to reach a ceasefire and lasting peace,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in the so-called telephone call, according to the Turkish presidential office, after talking on the phone with Putin. “Turkey will offer all possible assistance to facilitate conversations and efforts to achieve sustainable peace,” Erdogan said in this Kremlin conversation.

Under the allies agreement a few days ago, the “complete and unconditional” ceasefire of at least 30 days should start this Monday, but the day dawned in Ukraine with renewed russian attacks with drones, and the news that Zelensky spoke on the phone with the new leader of the Catholic Church, inviting Leo XIV to visit his country and repeating that he is available for “in any format”.

“Ukraine wants to end this war and is doing all possible for it,” Zelensky said in the call with the American Pope. “We hope Russia will take appropriate measures. We agreed to keep in contact and organize a personal encounter in the near future.”

With all the hopes placed at this week’s summit in Istanbul, nothing is certain about the possible start of direct negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. Shortly after the invasion, Zelensky suggested sitting at the table with Putin for conversations, but in the face of the enemy’s preliminary rejection, a presidential decree was approved that, still in force,. And the hypothesis of a ceasefire to be implemented soon remains a mirage.

“I think the parties are far from a total ceasefire, Putin made it clear that the negotiations will come first, only then followed by a ceasefire if the negotiations are successful,” says Oleg Ignatov of Crisis Group. “At best, I think we will watch the beginning of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine – but the parties of the parties are so distant that these negotiations are unlikely to result in quick success.”

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