Everyone’s eyes are on today (15/5) for the first negotiations between Ukrainians and Russians since the spring of 2022, when then -ceasefire attempts collapsed. The week began “maximalist”, with the possibility of the Russian president to go to Constantinople small but existing and open the possibility of the US president. In the end, only the Ukrainian president – who will first meet with the Turkish president in Ankara and possibly go to Constantinople – will eventually come to Constantinople – while Putin announced the composition of the Russian delegation slowly on the eve of the talks.
The exact form of the talks, that is, if the two delegations will meet directly from the beginning or will talk through Turkish mediation, remains negotiating until the last minute. The day after the talks on Friday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special envoys, Steve Whitkov and Keith Klogk, are expected in Constantinople.
Ukraine’s demands and the Russian Ghost fleet
In this context, the complete that the Ukrainians desire and demanded by the Europeans-with the threat of the 17th Package of sanctions to which it targets the “ghost fleet” that carries Russian oil bypassing the sanctions, cannot be achieved in this context. The Ukrainian side also wishes to discuss the complete exchange of captives.
Russia’s aspirations are unclear
What Moscow wants is less clear. Many in Europe are worried that Putin will represent that he is negotiating, pulling talks in a long time, and in the meantime he will continue to bomb Ukraine if he does not intensify the bombings at all. After all, the Russian president states that he will not agree on a truce unless a peacekeeping agreement is preceded.
Putin is not in a hurry
Putin has the upper hand on the battlefield, where the advance of the Russians is slow but steady, and is in no hurry to stop the war because the time he spends in favor of him. On the contrary, Kiev is urgent to stop hostilities and Trump wants a deal quickly.
The difficult balance
The Russian president, however, must balance between the regular delay, but without categorically reject a proposal for a truce coming from Trump because he is believed to want to maintain the good relationship they have with each other and the new prestige he derives from it.
The Draft Cruise of 2022
In the latest direct Ukrainian negotiations in 2022 in Constantinople, the two sides had reached a draft agreement that, according to a leaked document, would include non -integration of Ukraine in NATO, the reduction of the Ukrainian armed forces, the United States, the United States, Ukraine not to recapture Crimea while Donetsk and Luhank’s fate would be the subject of a separate negotiation. The 2022 agreement obviously did not go ahead, but the two sides later reached an agreement on Ukraine’s cereals with the mediation of Turkey and the UN (which then collapsed).
The eager Erdogan
he will also gather the lights today as a host and a mediator. The Turkish president describes today’s talks as a possible historical turning point and is willing to oversee the truce whenever it is agreed.
