With consolidated leadership in automotive exchanges with Brazil, the Argentina It was the main destination and origin of marketed vehicles in the first quarter of 2025. Sectoral Analysis of Data OLX Autos It shows that Argentines concentrated 69%of Brazilian exports in the sector, ahead of Mexico (7%) and Colombia (6.9%).
On the import side, the “hermanos” also lead, with 33%stake, while China appears in second place with 22%, followed by Mexico with 15%.
The, which used data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC), also indicates a positive dynamics in the trade relations of the Brazilian automotive segment. Between March last year and March 2025, them grew 15.3%, and imports, 23.4%.
In the first quarter, sales of light car abroad advanced 38.7%, upper than imports, which rose 25.4% in the same period.
“Argentina’s economic recovery eventually boosted these results and positioned the country as a relevant partner in Brazil, both as the destination and origin of these vehicles,” explains Flávio Passos, VP of the OLX group.
Even as far as this year’s car imports are concerned, the brothers are passing in front of China. This is because, in accumulated between January and November 2024, Chinese cars accounted for 40% of the origins, compared to 27% of Argentines.
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According to Passos, the data point to a positive scenario for the automotive sector, with stability in both the actual credit concession and in the volume of – all, despite the increase in interest and default. “Between January and March, we observed a growth in production and sales of new vehicles, as well as solid performance in the used and used semi -new market.”
Automotive production and sales
It registered a 10.2% increase in 12 months to March 2025, compared to the same period of the previous year. Already in the first quarter, the growth was 8.3% over the same interval of 2024.
Sales of car zero -kilometer light and light commercials increased by 10.9%, in the March 2025 comparison with the same month of 2024. In the quarter, the sale of new ones grew 7.6%. The data is from Anfavea.
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Already the marketing of used and used cars increased 9% in the accumulated of 12 months, from March. When evaluating the quarter, the indicator is also positive, with an increase of 3.9%.
Macroeconomics and Trade War
By the end of 2024, forecasts already indicated that one of the main challenges for the sector was related to increased Selic, which would impact the cost of vehicle financing, especially the younger ones, and default.
In the current conjuncture, the uncertainties caused by the commercial war began by the United States include this challenge. Among the most relevant impacts are the weakening of commercial relations with China, the increased risk of global recession, high volatility in commodity prices and obstacles to global transportation logistics.
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In the automotive segment, through the announcement and suspension of tariffs, it is observed that Brazil and Argentina face the risk of losing investments planned by automakers.
The forecast of annual growth of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025 is 2%, according to the Central Bank Focus Bulletin, which is below the 3.4%increase in 2024. This estimate is a reflection of factors such as Selic’s increase, which in March recorded 14.25%.
In March, the IPCA reached 5.48%, accumulated in 12 months. In the automotive sector, new vehicle inflation follows the decreasing trend observed in 2024, reaching 4.70% for new cars, and with deflation scenario, reaching -0.97%, according to IBGE and Central Bank data.
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Interest for vehicle financing also increased until January. In February, the rate for individuals showed a slight drop of -0.3 percentage points, reaching 29.1%. For legal entities, the rate is 20%.
The concession of real credit for the acquisition of cars retreated 0.4% in January, compared to December. In February, only 0.1 percentage point (PP) grew, compared to the previous month.
