António Pedro Santos / Lusa
Pedro Nuno Santos with António Costa
AD’s victory seems to be certain, and with time off; But the last two legislative elections have shown that the undecided can make a difference.
As elections are only happening because of the suspicions around Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, due to the company Spinumviva, AD could shake, but apparently it will Win again. And with larger margin than last year.
At least, this is the course presented by virtually all poll over the last few weeks. Still this Friday, the last day of the election campaign, comes the last poll of the one that puts the PSD/CDS coalition with 34% two votes against 26% from PS.
Raul Vaz considers that if these numbers are confirmed, it will be an “expressive AD victory” and at the same time a “significant defeat of the PS”. With AD and IL to form government, even without absolute majority, “should be made possible by the PS.”
“But you need to have some caution”warned the political commentator in. Above all because of the numbers that inquiries show about the PS.
Is that, in the last two legislative elections, the polls deceived.
Em 2022, António Costa (Ps) e Rui Rio (PSD) They almost always appeared tied, The PSD was ahead, shortly before the elections – and, after all, the PS won the elections with absolute majority.
In 2024, the era “How many PS will lose”because many polls approached Luís Montenegro to the absolute majority – and, after all, the PS almost won. Only had less 50 thousand votes than ad.
In these two elections, “several opinion studies depreciated the results of the PS“Raul Vaz continues.
And there is more: the number of undecided remains considerable in this year’s polls; It even surrounded the 20%. In previous elections, most undecided voters are – that is, many undecided will be usual (but not right) PS voters.
