The president () must prioritize alliances with center and center-right parties in 2026 and work to wage a possible advance of pockets on.
The definition of candidacies in the states will go through the strategy of the national election. The goal is to stop the election of names close to the former president (PL) and avoid a majority of the Senate opposition in a possible fourth mandate of Lula.
The dispute for the Senate is a priority for Bolsonaro, who is ineligible and will not be able to run for next year’s election. He should mobilize a troop of candidates for the upper chamber with names of his confidence, including his wife Michelle and children Flávio and Eduardo, all.
The formation of a majority in the legislature is seen as crucial to strengthen the former president’s position in the clash with the Federal Supreme Court, including possible requests for impeachment of ministers.
The Senate is also seen as crucial to advancing amnesty proposals from involved in the 2023 and to block nominations to the Central Bank and regulatory agencies. The PL has the second largest bench with 14 senators, 8 of them with mandate until 2031.
To wage the offensive, the Lula government must negotiate part of the 54 vacancies that will be disputed in 2026 and make room for allies of parties such as, and. The tendency is for the PT to have its own candidates only in the states where it has competitive names.
“We are in a diagnostic phase to start internal conversations and allied parties. Our expectation is to build a lulist bench and prevent the far right from doing majority, which would be a problem,” says the PT’s national president ,.
The PT has nine senators, of which six end their term in February 2027. Next year, the goal is to overcome the adverse election of 2018, when he won only four chairs.
Of the six senators at the end of their term, five will seek reelection – Jaques Wagner (BA), Humberto Costa (PE), Rogério Carvalho (SE), Fabiano Contarato (ES) and (AP). The last two were elected by the sustainability network, but migrated to the PT throughout the term.
The exception is Senator Paulo Paim (RS), who has already announced that he will not try a fourth consecutive term. The favorite to assume the candidacy is the federal deputy Paulo Pimenta, who gained visibility as minister of the reconstruction of Rio Grande do Sul after.
Other petistas move to rise to the Senate, but the claims will be analyzed on a case by case basis. The only name considered right is that of the governor of Rio Grande do Norte, who ends his second term and is seen as a favorite for the vacancies in dispute.
In six other states and the Federal District, petistas who currently hold other positions confirmed their intention to run for Senate.
This is the case of the Minister of the Civil House, Rui Costa, who ruled Bahia between 2015 and 2022 and works to have an elective term again. He has claimed that he is willing to be a candidate, but will only compete with Lula’s endorsement.
The claim has tensioned the base of the governor of Bahia, (PT), since the Senators (PT) and (PSD) say they will dispute the reelection.
The PT has defended one to the Senate, but moves with caution not to fracture the allied base. The assessment is that the national scenario will be decisive for the definition of the plate.
The scenario is similar in Ceará. Deputy José Guimarães (PT), leader of the Lula administration in the House, claims one of the vacancies to the Senate, but other allied parties want to compose the plate of Governor Elmano de Freitas (PT).
Federal Deputy Eunício Oliveira (MDB) wants to return to the Senate after the 2018 defeat. Senator Cid Gomes (PSB) says he is not a candidate for reelection, but supports federal deputy Junior Mano (PSB). Also that entering the dispute the former senator Chiquinho Feitosa (Republicans).
In Piauí, the PT has been pressured by its own candidacy, but Governor Rafael Fonteles (PT) indicated that he should support Marcelo Castro (MDB) and Júlio Cesar (PSD). In Alagoas, Lula should support the reelection of Renan Calheiros (MDB), which can disturb the plans of Federal Deputy Paulão (PT).
They still work to compete for the Senate by the PT the Minister of Racial Equality, (RJ), Deputy Erica Kokay (DF) and former deputy Marcelo Ramos (AM).
The priority, however, will be to support competitive names that oppose pockets. In Amazonas, for example, the tendency is to support the reelection of Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB) to face the deputy Captain Alberto Neto (PL), named by Bolsonaro for the dispute.
The scenario is still hazy in. Among the mayor’s allies, who must have Lula’s support in the government’s dispute, the names of Evangelical Deputy Otoni de Paula (MDB) and former Deputy Alessandro Molon (PSB) emerge. Petista Anielle Franco aims at the Senate, but.
In, the vice president (PSB) is appointed as a name capable of facing the possible candidacy of federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL). But the PSB has been working to keep him as Lula de Lula’s mate in 2026.
