When 2025 ends, the government will have allocated almost $ 1 trillion in a minority that has money invested in the bank. It will be practically the same amount budgeted this year to pension payments for 41 million monthly benefits, with 23.5 million to retirees.
The splendid income concentration will occur by the high interest rate now. Today, conservative applications pay almost 9% per year above.
Interest is high (at 14.75%) because the BC tries to tame a persistent inflation, a reflection of the heated economy beyond the account. It is like this because Lula periodically invents means of providing the population more public money – or private, if recent credit for formal employees.
This cable of war between the BC and Lula slows down the fall in inflation and cavalry interest and is still uncertain if prices will be controlled. It is guaranteed that even if the BC can, the rates should not fall much. There is a trend in the global square contrary to this.
USA and the two largest economies are now equivalent to 100% of their GDP and maintain very high deficits. The consequence is that they have paid higher interest rates to finance themselves, leading investors to charge a risk prize above US rates to buy Brazilian titles and other emerging.
Although they represent 40% of world GDP, emerging (except China) attract only 7% of the global portfolio of investments in government bonds and shares because they have misfit and low credit notes compared to developed countries – suck the bulk of financing.
For his part, since he took over, Lula has increased with more spending by 4.2 points the size of public debt, raising the cost of his rolling. With the president entering the electoral mode and the new international scenario, which was not good, it will get worse.
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