The hypothetical peace that Ukraine and Russia could reach in a few weeks – or perhaps months – could have counterproductive effects in the medium term for the alliance of NATO countries. And, sources from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) recently revealed, Putin could expand their attacks in a very short time to NATO territory.
As they explain, this scenario could occur in 2027, the year in which Moscow could try to advise the Alliance by attacking any of the Baltic countries and thus challenge the activation of the famous article 5, which would force the rest of the states that constitute the alliance to defend a Member State.
This could try, of course, as long as he could rearm his armed forces after the hard wear to those who are being subjected by the conflict in Ukraine. However, it would not be necessary to recompose the entire army, since for this he would need about a decade, as British Admiral Sir Tony Radakin reported, although he could ‘resurrect it’ sufficiently to carry out this attack.
And the main reason that pushes experts to think that this is possible is the fact that Putin will increase defense expenditure to 7.5% of GDP during this year, which represents a considerable increase. In addition, it was Putin himself who assured that the West should not underestimate the military and reconstruction of Russia.
All this suggests the IISS that Russia could raise an important military challenge to NATO allies in 2027, specifically in Baltic countries. And as they explain, at least one of these three countries would be Russian objective since in recent years they have become potential objectives for Moscow. In addition, it could confirm whether the alliance is able to put in practice article 5.
On the other hand, the British media The Sun He recalled in his pages the “worrying satellite images” of Russian troops accumulating after the border with Finland. For all this, it seems more important than ever, according to Europe, increase the defense spending “at the levels of the cold war”, when the percentage of GDP destined for war reached 3%.
And this current is increasingly repeated among allied countries. For example, USA, whose general Christopher Cavoli warned the Senate that the Russian armed forces are recovering and growing “at a faster rate that most analysts had anticipated.”
“It is estimated that Russian land forces have lost some 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems and more than 400 anti -aircraft systems in Ukraine during the past year,” he said.
Although the most disturbing thing is that these types of approaches are increasingly recurring and public. Macron, Prime Minister Estonia and other European leaders, are some of the voices that are warning that the war in Europe can begin before expected.
