Tiago Petinga / Lusa
The first polls, released by television chains at 8 pm point to a victory of the democratic alliance, with 29 to 34% of the votes. Technical draw between PS and comes the possibility of André Ventura’s party to be the second most voted formation. AD and IL do not get a majority.
According to the RTP / Catholic University poll, A ad terá 29 to 34% of the votes, with 85 to 96 elected deputies. The lower margin of the projection is above the vote obtained in 2024, which stood at 28.82%.
The same poll points to a technical draw between PS and arrives, which means that the arrival may become the second most voted force in this electoral act.
According to this projection, the PS should have 21 to 26% of the voteswith 52 to 63 elected terms, and the Arrives should have 20 to 24% of the voteswith 50 to 61 deputies.
A Liberal initiative should have a vote between 4 and 7%, which correspond 6 to 12 deputies. Within the upper limits of the intervals of the number of possible mandates, the 12 of IL and 96 AD add 108, below the necessary 116 for a parliamentary majority.
O Free, with 2 to 6% of the votes, may have a large climb In the number of deputies, from 4 to 10, and may even exceed the liberal initiative.
The projection points to the CDU with 2 to 4% (2 to 4 deputies) and the left block with 1 to 3% (1 to 3 deputies), which would mean a reversal of the relative positions of the two parties – but both outdated by the free.
The PAN, with 1 to 2%, risks losing its only deputy, while JPP, the second most voted training in Madeira, with up to 1%, may debut in Parliament, with a mandate.
The abstention should be between 41.5% and 47.7%.
SIC / ISCTE poll: There is no majority
The projection of SIC / ISCTE gives AD with 30.3 to 34.7% of the voteswith 82 to 94 terms, and IL with 4.2 to 7.4% (6-12 terms)-that is, the sum of the maximum possible mandates continues to be lower than necessary for a majority parliamentary.
The same projection points to the PS with 21.6 to 25.8% (56 to 66 deputies) and arrives with 19.9 to 24.1% (55 to 65 terms), confirming the trend to tie Between the two party formations
The free, with 3.3% 6.5% of the votes (4 to 10), is also in a technical draw With IL, with whom disputes fourth position in electoral results.
The projection gives CDU 1.4 to 4.0% (1 to 4 terms), left block with 1 to 3.6% (1 to 4 terms), the PAN with 0.5 to 2.5% (0 to 2 terms) and the JPP with 0.2 to 0.8% (0 to 1 terms).
TVI / CNN poll: there is almost a majority
In turn, the tvi / cnn poll is slightly more optimistic for the AD: 29.1%-35.1%, electing 80 to 100 deputies. Already IL has between 5% to 8%, which corresponds to 6 to 14 terms. The sum of the maximum possible mandates gives 114 – Two of the 116 necessary to ensure a majority.
Here, the He arrives comes second with 19.5% -25.5% (50-70 mandates); and the PS third with 19.4%-25.4%, with the same number of terms assigned, Again with a technical draw.
Free is in fourth: Book com 3,2%-6,2% (4-10 deputies). Then come to CDU com 1,3%-4,3% (1-5); o BE com 1,1%-4,1% (1-5).
PAN-0.5% -2.5% (0 to 2 deputies)-as in other polls it risks losing its only deputy.
TVI / CNN poll: arrives second
The survey of TVI / CNN does not escape the rule: AD highlighted with 30,9%-36,9%being able to elect between 87 to 99 deputies; but, joining the ILwhich appears with 3.3% -7.3% (5 to 11 terms) Nor will you get a majority.
But in this poll, the He arrives appears in second, with a minimum percentage of 20.6% and maximum of 26.6%, electing between 57 and 67 deputies.
O PS emerges as the third political force with percentages of 19.4%-25.4%, electing 52 to 62 mandates.
O Free is room with 1.9% -5.9% (2 to 8 deputies)followed by CDU, with 1.4% -4.4% (1-5 mandates).
This projection suggests that the Be risks not electing deputies: 0.5% -3.5% (0-3); as or bread: 0.3% -2.3% (0-2).
