Against the backdrop of uncertainty, today the ballot boxes open for the second round of the presidential election, with two candidates diametrically opposed to each other – the only audience of the far -right populist and the liberal pro -European Mayor of Bucharest Nicusor Dan It is that they are two politicians who do not come from traditional parties.
Thus, two weeks after the subversive first round, but also a few months after the cancellation of last November elections due to complaints of Russian involvement, the Romanians are called upon to choose not only who will lead, but also what course the country will take.
The crisis of the political system
however, as it did not garner an absolute majority, the country led to repetitive elections. Dan, with just 21%, managed to qualify for the second round, leaving behind the government’s candidate Antonescu (20%).
“This is proof that the traditional political system in Romania has paid off. Romanian society is experiencing an unprecedented division, but as different as the two candidates and their voters respectively, there is common ground: fatigue and frustration by traditional parties. “ comments on “Step” Severeditor -in -chief of “Dilema Veche” magazine and a former politician with the center -right National Liberal Party (PDL).
THE Vladimir TimneanProfessor of Political Science at the University of Maryland in the US, says that “The pandemic has contributed significantly to the development of anti -systemic movements, from which Dan and Simon come from. Dan has already managed to win the Municipality of Bucharest twice, defeating candidates of the establishment. Simon, on the other hand, took advantage of the anti -vaccine slogans and adopted an acute xenophobic agenda. Today, the former represents a renewed European liberalism, while the latter is mainly aimed at citizens who feel anger, frustration and despair, representing populist nationalism. “.
The 38 -year -old Simon has widespread support precisely because of his rhetoric against European integration and an agenda in favor of the “traditional Christian family”. , denies climate change, and has been banned from entering Ukraine and Moldova.
He, however, insists that he is fighting for democracy, the rule of law and the constitutional order. “If Simon becomes president, Romania will probably face a deep political and constitutional crisis.” says in “Step” Christian PirvoulescuProfessor at the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration in Bucharest.
“Simon’s profile strongly reflects what Umberto Eko described as ‘proto -fascism’: almost all 14 features identified by EKO – such as fear of diversity, opposition to intellect and conspiracy – are visible in his speech. There are also documented links between his movement and groups of fascist movements of the 1930s in Romania » adds the professor.
Its dynamics were further enhanced after the cancellation of last November’s presidential elections and the exclusion of the Filorer winner Kalin Georgkescuwhich was the surprise of that match. Simon adopted part of his rhetoric, while in the first round they voted together, which led to the successful absorption of Georgkescu’s voters.
. His views are aligned with leaders such as his Victor Orban in Hungary, while opposed to the provision of military aid to Ukraine.
“Over 80% of the population is in favor of the EU. Obviously many of them are Simon voters” Vonecu points out. That is why there is also the perception that if Simon is finally elected, he will probably limit his anti -European rhetoric to Italian levels. Georgia. “Romania has gained enormous benefits from its accession to the EU and Simon has to take it seriously.” says Professor Timneanou.
What will the outcome judge
The first round percentages place Simon in place of the favorite, but recent polls show the two marginalized draws. Of course, polls in Romania are often unreliable, with the most recent example of the May 5 elections.
Voinecu points out that anyway “The second round starts 0-0, not from 40-20. Indeed, Simon has a dynamic, but in the last two weeks, Dan has made an excellent election campaign and has proven to be a good politician beyond any expectation. “.
Finally, he concludes that the second round will be shaped by basic groups of voters, most importantly the Romanian dispersion – estimated at nearly 6 million. About a million voted in the first round, many of whom supported Simon.
There is also focusing on Timnean. “The behavior of the diaspora historically changes in the repeat rounds, especially when democratic values are at stake. A strong mobilization by democratic forces could overturn balance. “ he says.
It is noted that as most Romanians were able to start leaving the country only in 2007, they still maintain very close ties with their homeland and in many elections have played a decisive role – but it is difficult to calculate the polls.
This is also unpredictable, and according to analysts, according to analysts, it could be an important factor ,.
Going down as an independent candidate and based on private donations, he has now won the support of the Liberal Union “save Romania – (a party he founded in 2016 but left 2017), the center -right PDL and the Hungarian minority UDMR. The Social Democratic Party, the largest of Romania, officially abstained from the support of a candidate.
