The discovery of a case of avian flu In a farm in Rio Grande do Sul last week put both producers and buyers of Brazilian poultry products. As the largest chicken exporter in the world, accounting for 35% of the global protein trade, the country sold more than 5.1 million tons of chicken meat, with record revenues of $ 9.742 billion.
Despite the fright, experts heard by Infomoney They evaluate that the economic consequences will be limited, provided that the case remains isolated and containment measures are being adopted with agility.
Fast Action Avoid Murdens
According to Alcides Torres, an analyst at Scot Consultoria, the authorities acted quickly when suspending exports from the affected region and start sanitary actions. “Some countries have also suspended purchases for 60 days. This gives time for all measures to be taken and international organizations prove that Brazil acted correctly,” he says.
He recalls that the disease does not pose a risk to human health, as it is not considered zoonosis, and is therefore not transmitted by meat or eggs. “In addition, the Brazilian production system, based on closed and highly controlled farms, makes it even more difficult to spread the virus. The government had already prohibited free bird creation because of risk with migratory birds,” he says.
Short production cycle softens impacts
The poultry cycle, about 45 days from birth to slaughter, allows the sector to react quickly. For Alcides, production can be moved to other regions such as São Paulo or Santa Catarina, reducing the regional impact and ensuring supply. “It is a very well structured sector. The expectation is that the effects will be punctual, in both logistics and in prices,” he adds.
Felippe Seigati, a researcher at FGV Agro, stresses that it will all depend on the confirmation that the case in the municipality of Montenegro (RS) is isolated. “If it is really unique, just implement the zoning of 10 kilometers around the focus and the other regions can continue exporting,” he says.
Continues after advertising
Seirigati recalls that Brazil gained space in the global market when the European Union had outbreaks and lost part of the demand. The expectation is that, if well controlled, this episode does not harm the Brazilian position. “There may be a price drop in the domestic market, with greater meat supply that will not be exported, but it will be temporary,” he said.
Food inflation
Despite the possibility of a punctual fall in chicken prices in the domestic market, Serigati rules out that this can alleviate food inflation significantly. “The chicken did not have big highs recently. So, it is not a factor that will move a lot with the overall index,” he points out.
For Marcos Jank, coordinator of Insper Agro Global, the most important thing is to reinforce that the consumption of chicken and egg meat is safe. “There is no possibility of human contamination by consumption,” he explains.
Continues after advertising
He points out that Brazil has prepared for decades to deal with situations like this. “We export to over 160 countries, we have strict protocols and a positive history. Zoning is one of the tools that guarantees international trust. There is no reason to close the entire country for an isolated focus,” he argues.
Reliable supplier
Brazil has gained markets and has expanded its slice in global exports over the last two decades. By 2000, the United States accounted for 50% of world sales of chicken meat and Brazil by 18%. Today, this participation has been reversed: the US has 22% and Brazil, 35%.
“We are growing more than competitors. This requires the country to keep the protocols up to date and ready to be applied, exactly what has been done now,” says Jank.
Continues after advertising
With the national average consumption of 45 kilos of chicken meat per person per year – compared to the 25 pounds of beef and 20 pork – the expectation is that internal demand will remain strong. “The possible drop in price in the domestic market, caused by the temporary suspension of exports, can even boost consumption,” says Jank.
Reputation preserved by reinforced surveillance
Although every sanitary event generates concern, experts evaluate that the Brazilian response was agile, technical and transparent, which strengthens the country’s image as a reliable supplier. Surveillance remains reinforced, mainly due to the realization that the avian flu virus is circulating throughout America, and the challenge is to keep the focus under control.
