The (site) He has published a report in which he disarms Russia, data to data: he maintains that the administration can be embellishing the country’s economic situationthat they do them more harm than it seems, that their friends are not saving purchases, than the war economy and defense production is not the panacea.
The document, which serves as the basis for discussions with the Ministers of Finance of the European Union (EU), indicates that the economy of the Russian Federation It is still “relatively stable”but that resilience is only superficial and underlying imbalances and structural weaknesses are growing.
“The fiscal stimulus in times of war has maintained the economy afloat in the short term, but the dependence on opaque financingthe distorted allocation of resources and the reduction of tax matt Time is not on Russia’s sideevaluate the report.
The director of the Site, Torbjörn Becker, in the presentation of the dossier, said without surroundings that, for example, You cannot trust Russia’s published GDP figures because it is likely that the Kremlin significantly underestimate inflation. “Russia states that inflation is 9-10 %. Why would they have an official interest rate of 21 % in the Central Bank? What normal central bank would have an official interest rate that, in reality, is 11.50 percentage points above the inflation rate? If any other central banker did something similar, I would be out of work the next day“Becker said, according to the Finnish newspaper .
“That is a very clear indication that inflation can be the right figure. And if inflation is underestimated, the real GDP is overestimated, “he continued.
“That is a very clear indication that inflation may not be the right figure. And if inflation is underestimated, real GDP is overestimated”
The head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, during a speech in the Economic Forum of St. Petersburg, on June 16, 2022.
Pressures and limits
He, and especially his governor Elvira Nabiullina, have been operating under absolutely exceptional pressure. More recently, in early April, two bills were considered in the lower house of the Russian Parliament, the Duma, which They would limit the independence of the Central Bank and its governor.
Nabiullina has been criticized for a long time for its strict monetary policy. It is estimated that Putin intervened in the actions of the Central Bank At least last December, when key interest rates remained unchanged, contrary to expectations.
In its report, Site also highlights the Russian budget deficitwhich according to official figures is only two percent of the gross domestic product.
The report indicates that, at the same time, the Russia income from oil, gas and coal have been decreasing and the Military spending has been drastically increasing. “Russian’s public figures They do not match With what we believe they are spending on military operations, “Becker said.
The Russian figures are also closely followed by Alexandra Prokopenko, former advisor of the Central Bank of Russia and a researcher in political economy, and Alexander Kolyand, a researcher specialized in Russia in the think tank European Policies Analysis Center. In their weekly bulletin they claim that Currently the income of the Russian State is growing four times slower than expenses.
“If the treasure continues to maintain high levels of spending now, You will have to cut it more drastically when the economic deceleration begins to feel”Experts predict.
