A survey commissioned by allies of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) simulated an unusual presidential second round scenario in the state of São Paulo between the first ladies Janja da Silva and Michelle Bolsonaro. According to the survey, released by Folha de S. Pauloboth appear technically tied, with 41% of voting intentions.
The scenario tested anticipates movements in the national political chess for the 2026 elections, considering the (PL) by the Electoral Court. Michelle has been named as a natural heiress of her base, especially between the female and evangelical electorate.
Already Janja, although with growing visibility and active presence in government agendas, could not compete in the Planalto in 2026, as it is a spouse of the acting president – unless Lula resigned to office.
Names from left to SP
The same research also evaluated possible scenarios for the dispute to the São Paulo government, if the current governor, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), try the reelection. In one of the paintings, the vice president and former governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) appears with 35% of voting intentions, against 46% of Tarcisio.
Former mayor Marta Suplicy (PT) records 33%, also at a disadvantage against the governor. Minister Márcio França (PSB) has 28%, while the health holder, Alexandre Padilha (PT), appears with only 15%.
The data indicate that, although names of the ruling base have recall and consolidated political trajectory, Tarcisio keeps his lead in São Paulo, his main stronghold and showcase for eventual national flights.
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The study listened to 1,000 São Paulo voters between April 4th and 8th by phone. The margin of error is three percentage points. Indecisive voters add up to 8%, while null, white votes or none of the names reached 10%.
