Zap // Miguel A. Lopes, António Cotrim, António Pedro Santos, Tiago Petinga, Miguel Pereira da Silva / Lusa
If PS, free, PCP, Be and Pan had competed together with the elections – an idea that had already been mentioned by Rui Tavares – would have been able to take 5 deputies and arrives and 8 to AD.
The dispersal of the left vote in the last Portuguese legislatures resulted in a significant loss of mandates that, if the parties had competed in a coalition, could have been withdrawn on the right.
According to an analysis by, a coalition between PS, free, left block, PCP and Pan would have obtained “Steal” 5 deputies At arrival and 8 to ad. The impact of this absence of union was particularly visible in circles such as Braga, Aveiro, Faro, Setúbal and Lisbon.
The application of the Hondt method, which favors coalitions in districts with fewer mandates, shows that the lack of coordination had a concrete political cost. In Braga, only the junction of the PS with the block and the free would have been sufficient to subtract a deputy at the arrival. Already in Aveiro, the inclusion of the PCP would be necessary to reach the same feat.
Faro’s case stands out for the fall of the PS to third place, with it leads the circle with 4 deputies, AD to be 3 and the PS with 2. A left coalition would have the distribution of mandates balanced Between the three forces, with the left to be with a arrival deputy.
In Setúbal, the historical bastion of the left, the arrival got six deputies. With a comprehensive coalition, the left could have conquered two of these places – one at the arrival and one to ad.
Lisbon, the most representative circle, requires the inclusion of PAN in the coalition to produce effect. In this scenario, the united left could have won 20 mandatesremoving one at the arrival and one to ad.
In addition to the five terms that the left coalition could steal upon arrival, there would be eight districts in which they could remove deputies from AD: Beja, Castelo Branco, Coimbra, Leiria, Lisbon, Santarém, Setúbal and Azores. In total, the coalited left would reach 82 mandates, Overcoming 81 AD and significantly reducing the advantage of arrival.
An eventual pre-election coalition between AD and IL would have a very small impact. By 2025, this union would only have an effect on two circles – Porto and Portalegre – resulting in the election of another deputy for each district. In Porto, free would lose a place; In Portalegre, the coalition would be able to elect Castro Almeida and “steal” a place to the PS.
