A new research contradicts the idea that earthquakes are caused by the magma and points to the pressure of groundwater as the true cause.
One from Stanford University published in Science Advances identified groundwater pressure – not the climb of magma – as the leading cause of increasingly frequent earthquakes that shake the Italian region of Campi Flegrei. The discovery opens a new way to potential seismic risk management through water flow control.
Located west of Naples, Campi Flegrei is a huge volcanic boiler known for its “respiratory” land, which up and down periodically. Since 2022, the intensification of seismos has alarmed residents and led the authorities to consider large -scale bowel movements. Investigators now believe that the key to reducing these events lies in control of pressure accumulation caused by water and steam arrested under the surface.
The study resorted to subsoil images, precipitation data and laboratory experiences to show that seismos are triggered when fluid pressure in a sealed geothermal reservoir fracture the rock above it. This fact contradicts the longtime belief that volcanic agitation is mainly driven by the movement of magma, says.
“Manage the runoff or remove water from the wells can relieve subsurface pressure And reduce the risk of seismic activity, ”said lead author, Tiziana Vanorio, geophysical and natural in the region.
The investigation is based on data from two major agitation periods: 1982-1984 and 2011-2024. Both were marked by soil elevation, sudden micro-wounds and noise, which the researchers attribute vapor explosions triggered by fracturing. After the 1980s crisis, 40,000 people were evacuated from Pozzuoli when the land rose more than two meters and the port was unusable.
Scientists have carried out laboratory tests by simulating geothermal conditions using a device inspired by a Moka coffee maker, recreating the rock sealing process. Found that when cracks in the rock are sealed, fluid pressure Increases until provoking earthquakesallowing water and steam to escape violently.
A deepened analysis of earthquake patterns revealed that tremors began in the surface rock, not in the depths of the magmatic zone, and deepened over time.
“This changes our understanding of what is at the source of volcanic agitation,” said Co-author Grazia de Landro. “We are looking at a closed system in which the Underground Water Accumulation is the true trigger”.
