Bolsonarism will achieve the majority of chairs in the 2026 elections if it repeats the extraordinary performance of four years earlier, in 2022, but obtaining the necessary number for impeachment of ministers of the (Federal Supreme Court), the group’s declared goal, will only occur with an overwhelming and unprecedented victory.
Senate control in 2026 is desired not only by (PL) and its allies, which do not hide this goal and the reasons for which they persecute it, but also by (PT) and allies ,.
The elections for the 81 Senate chairs work differently, as the mandate is eight years, not four, as is for the other elective positions.
In 2022 were renewed 27 of the 81 chairs (one from each state) and, although Bolsonaro lost reelection to Lula, the president’s allies at the time achieved a beating performance in the house.
leading to the so-called “High House” until January 2031 names such as former Bolsonarist Ministers (Republicans-DF), (PL-SP), Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), Jorge Seif (PL-SC) and Sergio Moro (União Brasil-PR), as well as the then vice president, (Republicans-RS).
Near or more friendly senators Lula got 33% of the vacancies and the independent, with 11%.
Despite this result, the party configuration of those who in 2022 were still in the middle of the mandate allowed Lula to have a situation of relative control, as in total pockets and the most fierce opposition was around 30 of 81 vacancies.
Already in October 2026, the Senate will renew the other 54 chairs, two thirds of the house, two per state.
If the pockets repeat the extraordinary feat of 2022, that is, win 56% of the vacancies in dispute, it will be able to occupy the most vacancies, 45 – the sum of the elected with those who are in the middle of a mandate.
The number that would give it a considerable strength in the house – a few less than the minimum necessary for the approval of amendments to the Constitution, which is 49 – but represents a very complex task.
It would be necessary to win 30 of the 54 vacancies in dispute. One per state and two in three of them, for example.
To obtain the minimum number of chairs to approve the impeachment of an STF Minister (54), which never occurred in the country’s history, the performance of the 2026 elections will have to be even more extraordinary.
Control of 54 of the 81 Senate chairs by pockets will only occur if the names linked or supported by the former president win 39 new vacancies, ie a “success rate” of over 70%.
They would have, for example, that they elect a senator in each of the 27 federation units, and 12 of them would have to win both vacancies.
If this is electing two senators per state, it is a possible goal in federation units such as Santa Catarina, for example, the general pre-candidacy map shows a much more adverse scenario in other locations.
The list shows several well-evaluated governors as favorites-between them Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO), Romeu Zema (Novo-MG), Ratinho Júnior (PSD-PR) and Eduardo Leite (PSD-RS), presidential candidates, but having the Senate as plan B.
In the northern and northeast states, it is highly unlikely to have a double Bolsonarist victory, including being more feasible today in several of them there are no place won by allies of the former president.
In Bahia, for example, three strong names linked to Lula dispute the two vacancies of the plate and for now they are favorite. Senator and former governor Jaques Wagner (PT), minister and former governor Rui Costa (PT) and Senator Angelo Colonel (PSD). Name of pockets, former Minister João Roma (PL) runs out.
In Maranhão, there is not for now a candidate linked to Bolsonaro who appears with real chances of being elected. In Rio Grande do Norte, the favorite for one of the vacancies is the governor of PT, Fatima Bezerra. In Pará, the Barbalho family, now combined with Lula, has great popularity and is also a favorite to win both vacancies.
Outside the North and Northeast there are also problems for the former president. Goiás is an example. Even though the state being mostly sympathetic to Bolsonaro – he obtained 59% of Lula’s 41% votes in the 2022 election – it is given for certain in the local political world that one of the vacancies will be occupied by the main name supported by Governor Caiado.
Himself, if his candidacy for presidency wreck, or his wife, Gracinha Caiado (União Brasil). The other name of the governor’s plate is also strong, the former mayor of Aparecida de Goiânia Gustavo Medanha (MDB).
Bolsonarism will try to pierce this barrier possibly with Congressman Gustavo Gayer (PL), but the governor’s group led to the best in measuring direct forces in the state between Caiado and Bolsonaro, in the 2024 municipal elections.
In Minas Gerais, the former president himself says he has not yet had a defined name. In Sao Paulo his allies work with the expectation of enlisting the election of a PL pure-sangue plate, with Eduardo Bolsonaro and the state secretary of public security, Guilherme Derrite (PP).
In Rio, the bet is in the reelection of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
Even in places where Bolsonarists are expected to win both vacancies, the project of dismissing STF ministers may be deemed.
In the Federal District, they are emerging as very strong candidates for Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle – but she is not chosen by her husband candidate for presidency – and the current governor, Ibaneis Rocha (MDB).
Despite having a relationship close to Bolsonaro, the governor, who has made a career in law and has strong bonds with the judiciary, is not seen as someone who supports pro-impeachment movements of STF ministers.
“It has to be something very serious and, with what you have today, I wouldn’t have my support,” he said for example, in March.
