“We have fought the Swedes for 21 years. How long have you been willing to fight? ” He said, addressing the Ukrainian delegation during last week’s talks, Vladimir Mentinsky, Vladimir Putin’s ideological adviser and current head of the Russian delegation on peacekeeping negotiations.
Mentinsky, responsible for writing history books in present-day Russia, did not accidentally choose the reference to the Great Northern War between Russia and Sweden (1700-1721), which was won by the Russia of the Great Peter.
The Russian negotiator confirms the view that many Western analysts share: that it is not prepared to retreat to Ukraine, that it does not seek peace and that it intends to continue hostilities in the form of a warfare war. In addition, Moscow’s “red lines” have not moved since the start of the Russian invasion.
Trump’s controversial attitude
According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Donald Trump is said to be saying that “Putin will not retreat to Ukraine because he wins the war” – the Kremlin has denied the report. In private, Trump expresses dissatisfaction that the ending of the war is more difficult than it seems.
Putin, however, continues to hope for a victory on the battlefield, apparently estimating that Trump will stop American aid to Ukraine. Although Russia has 900,000 losses (dead and injured), it still maintains 640,000 troops and has received significant help from North Korea, Iran and China. Moscow therefore has no reason to compromise.
The consequences of Trump – Putin Communication
Many analysts note that after last Monday’s Trump-Putin phone call, the Kremlin received exactly what it sought: on the one hand, the end of pressure from the US and on the other, the creation of a rupture inside NATO between the Americans and the Europeans, who continue to insist.
Last Tuesday, the EU has imposed since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Trump’s threat of leaving mediation, stressing that “between the two sides, because they only know the details”, echoes the real goal of the US president, which is the normalization of US-Russia relations.
US -Russia Strategic Cooperation?
“Russia wants to develop important trade relations with the US when the bloodshed is over, and I agree with it,” Trump said in a post. The US president seeks to benefit US businesses who want to invest in the energy sector and Russia minerals.
Putin seems to understand it and directs their conversations in this direction.
Trump’s illusion
The distinguished historian, a specialist in Eastern Europe and Russia, if Aplbaum, notes to Atlantic that Trump is overestimating their friendship and attributes the Russian president in motivation. In the meantime, Putin has reshaped the Russian economy in a war economy and sacrifices thousands of men for small territorial profits, without interested in his international image.
The real stakes
Why to negotiate Putin seriously, and Politico wonders, when the only fear “is the possibility of the US to leave Ukraine if there is no peace agreement – which would favor the Russian side.
After that, European officials said the message is clear: not to expect the US to soon participate in new sanctions against Russia. “Putin obviously saves time. Unfortunately, we have to say that he is not really interested in peace, “commented Boris Pistorius, Minister of Defense of Germany.
