Current mayor adds 57% of voting intentions; In the Senate race, Flávio Bolsonaro is the first place in all scenarios, and Claudio Castro appears technically tied with Benedita da Silva
The mayor of Rio de Janeiro, (PSD), appears as a favorite fired in the dispute by the state government in 2026, according to a survey released on Tuesday (27) by. If the election were today, Paes would win in the first round with 57% of voting intentions in the stimulated scenario – when candidates’ names are presented to voters. In second place is the president of the Rio Legislative Assembly (Alerj), (Union), with 10.4%, followed by Federal Deputy Tarcísio Motta (PSOL), with 8.3%. The doctor and influencer Italo Marsili records 1.6%. White, null or none add up to 16.7%, and 6% of respondents did not know or did not respond.
In spontaneous research, where names are not previously presented, Eduardo Paes also leads with 7.6%. The governor (PL), who is in the second term and therefore cannot apply again, appears with 4%. (PL-RJ), with 1%, completes the list of the most cited. In this scenario, 80.3% of respondents did not know or did not want to give their opinion.
The survey was conducted between May 19 and 23, with 1,680 voters from 58 municipalities of Rio de Janeiro. The margin of error is 2.4 percentage points for more or less, and the degree of confidence is 95%.
Senate dispute
The research also simulated three scenarios for the election to the Senate. In all of them, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) leads with voting intentions ranging from 38.8% to 40.2%. In the first scenario, Benedita da Silva (PT) appears in second place, with 27.2%, followed by Clarissa Garotinho (Union), with 18.4%. Alessandro Molon (PSB) has 15.1%(without party), 14.5%, Pedro Paulo (PSD), 13.7%and Carlos Jordy (PL), 11.3%.
In the second scenario, Benedita da Silva remains second (26%), and Claudio Castro comes with 23.4% – that is, they are technically tied. The other candidates maintain similar performance. In the third scenario, Benedita registers 27.4%, and Clarissa, 19%. Molon, Anielle and Pedro Paulo continue with performance close to the other scenarios, and Senator Carlos Portinho (PL) appears with 6.5%.
CLÁUDIO CASTRO GOVERNMENT EVALUATION
Governor Claudio Castro’s management is disapproved of 49% of state voters, while 46% say they approve. Negative (bad or poor) assessment adds 35.1%, and 26.9% evaluate management as great or good. For 36% of respondents, the government is regular.
See the graphs pointed out by the research
RJ Government
Senate (three scenarios)
CASTRO GOVERNMENT EVALUATION
*With information from Estadão Content
