“I always had a great relationship with Vladimir Putin from Russia, but something happened to him. He was completely crazy!” Wrote on Sunday, US President Donald Trump on his social network. Hours earlier, Russia had launched one of the biggest drone attacks against Ukraine since the beginning of the war: 367 drones and missiles, which left 13 dead. In the message, he further states that Putin wants to conquer “all Ukraine,” and that if that happens, he would lead “to the fall of Russia.”
Some leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, saw in the Truth Social Post Traces of a Trumpist Epiphany about the conflict that has been dragging on since February 2022: to journalists, he said he hoped that “indignation” leads the White House to adopt measures like “a completely different and much more massive sanctions.
For the Russians, he sounded like more of the same, and as an opportunity to mock, in the style of local diplomacy, the leader of the largest military power on the planet.
“The beginning of the negotiating process, for which the American side has been very hard-to-end, is a very important achievement,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told. “Of course, at the same time, this is a very important moment that is associated with an emotional overload for absolutely all and emotional reactions.”
Since his return to the White House, this was the sixth time Trump complains about the delay in resolving a war that, even before he was elected, he promised to end up to 24 hours. In March, for example, he said he was “very angry” and “pissed” with Putin’s refusal to accept a 30-day unconditional ceasefire.
– The two are living a dynamic of relative stress. Trump expects Putin to go a step further, and Putin can’t. And this occasionally leads to these moments, such as Trump’s comment on the Social Truth – told Globo Paulo Velasco, professor of international relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ). – Trump himself has already implied that peace is obligatorily through the renunciation of Ukraine of the territories occupied by Russia. So this goes to meet what Putin thinks.
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Last month, he said that “he was not at all happy” with the new Russian attacks against Kiev, and made a request: “Vladimir, stop.” On Sunday, shortly before publishing his complaints on the Social Truth, he confided to reporters that “he didn’t know what the hell happened to Putin.”
The answer to the question is simple: nothing happened to Putin. He maintains, with some adjustments, the same goals of the day in which he launched the largest military operation on European soil since World War II, such as blocking Ukraine entry into NATO and making it a neutral country, keeping the areas conquered and obtaining a new (more affable) government in Kiev.
– Putin makes time and takes advantage of a certain goodwill of Trump, knowing that Trump respects him and admires him. So when Trump calls Putin “crazy,” Putin laughs because he knows that it does not influence the relationship between them – says Velasco, referring to the numerous statements praised to Trump’s Russian leader.
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Trump nor does it seem to have changed. Criticism of Putin once again accompanied vague threats of sanctions, as their European allies want, without any indication that they will become real. The impatience, demonstrated in the publication on the Social Truth, is also directed to the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, with whom he has a relationship marked more by the lows than by the ups. And the little appreciation of the US role in European collective security is a dark reminder to the continent that Washington’s support is no longer 100% guaranteed.
‘Right Way’: Trump announces ‘immediate negotiations’ between Russia and Ukraine, but Putin keeps caution about truce
If there is something different now is the public finding that the Russians understand that the risk of retaliation from the White House to the offensive in Ukraine is close to zero. In suggesting that the American leader suffers from an “emotional overload,” Kremlin tells the world that he sees him not as a threat to his plans in Ukraine, but as a “tiger of paper” – threatening but harmless – from those who will try to extract as many advantages as possible, not just on the battlefield.
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“Putin has a comfortable position in this negotiation, even though the war is costly to Russia, with all sanctions,” Velasco says. – Putin is not desperate, and thinks that in view of the need Trump has to rely on his willingness to end the conflict, he thinks he can bargain some more advantage.
A risk that has emerged in recent days was a project in the US Senate, supported by the two parties, which predicts Sanctions to Moscow, but Trump’s position is not yet known.
But there is a factor that needs to be taken into account: the unpredictability of the Trump 2.0 government. In the Middle East, the American leader made decisions, such as negotiating with Hamas and the Houthis of Yemen, without consulting Israel. The global tariff shook world economic pillars, but also saw Washington’s comings and goings. If Trump realizes that Putin has nothing more to offer him, or if he comes to advantages in more aggressive sanctions against Moscow, a turnaround would only be a post on the social truth away.
