Hypotheses less and less than a ceasefire and peace agreement will soon depend, instead, to know if Trump finally finds courage to reinforce with actions to his verbal criticism of President Vladimir Putin, made over the weekend.
Kremlin bet he won’t do it.
He devalued Trump’s frustration in the face of the most intense Russian drone attacks against Ukraine as a symptom of “emotional overload.” And the experience suggests that Putin can continue to challenge the US president. After all, Trump’s criticism of Putin in the social Truth, calling him “crazy” on Monday, was accompanied by a typical rebuke to the victim-Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Still, the increasingly intense Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians seem to be a deliberate test to Trump, a week after the so -called so -called Putin, which did not bring any advance to peace, despite the White House narrative.
There are two paths that Trump can follow, assuming that he is ready to abandon the humiliating position of being constantly manipulated by Putin.
It could impose new sanctions on Russia, something that previously argued to be able to make diplomacy difficult. He told journalists in New Jersey on Sunday that this was “absolutely” a possibility. Trump could also save lives in Ukraine by following his predecessor, Joe Biden, and asking Congress to approve new arms and ammunition shipping to the country.
An argument for a firmer answer
There is a good reason for Trump to change ideas: His credibility is at stake after the bold promises that he could end the war in 24 hours if they have revealed fantasy.
One option would be Trump to introduce so -called secondary sanctions to Russia, which sometimes suggested. These would aim at financial institutions, companies and other entities that continue to do business with Moscow.
Senators Lindsey Graham (Republican) and Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) have a new bill that provides severe sanctions to countries that still have relations with Russia. This could affect US opponents, such as China. But it could also harm Trump’s relationships with allies like India – a large Russian oil buyer at reduced prices. Senators already have 81 Copatrocinators, which means that the proposal could be quickly approved, if Trump wanted, sending a firm message to Russia.
Trump could also reinforce Ukraine’s air defenses by giving or selling more Patriot to Kiev missiles to combat cruise missiles that complement deadly drone nighttime attacks.
The dangers of a climb of war for a more direct confrontation between Russia and the West should not be ignored. This was also an important factor for Biden, and Trump’s hesitation before the Russian red lines was a constant frustration for his critics. But Trump’s caution makes Biden look like an aggressive interventionist.
Still, maybe Putin finally forced Trump to an epiphany long delayed.
“There have been statements and demonstrations of irritation and frustration on the part of President Trump and others in administration, even threats of sanctions, but so far nothing,” said former US ambassador to Ukraine, William Taylor, CNN International journalist Isares on Monday. “The question is, will this time enough to impose these sanctions? And not just the sanctions; there has to be support to the Ukrainian army as well.”
US Army Reformed Major Mike Lyons believes Trump may be creating political space for himself.
“For who is that publication in the social Truth? You are obviously addressing Vladimir Putin, but I think you are also testing it with American public opinion to realize if it would be popular to get more involved and lead the country to participate more directly in Ukraine,” Lyons told CNN. “I would like to believe that what he considered a simple equation when he took possession … now he realizes that it is a very difficult equation to solve.”
The European Allies of the US are attentive.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on a visit to Vietnam on Monday that after speaking recently to Trump, he believes that the US leader now understands that although “Putin President told him by phone that he was ready for peace”-and told him to US sents-“he was lying.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also hardened the tone. He said there are no longer limits to the reach of European weapons used by Ukraine – which means they can now reach targets in the interior of Russia. It was not immediately clear, however, if it referred to a real change in operational strategy.
The allies seem to give a moment when Trump could change their mind after months seeing him undermine his efforts to force Putin to accept an immediate ceasefire.
But, as always, no one knows for sure what your decision will be. A European diplomat said it is still difficult to tell if Trump’s convictions Putin really indicate a new approach, but noted that Europe is clearly interested in more sanctions.
What Kremlin thinks of Trump
There are two problems with the idea that Trump finally realized who the Russian leader really is.
First, he never showed great desire to criticize Putin.
Second, the brutality of the Russian leader in conducting the war is not new, three years after an unlawful and illegal invasion that killed tens of thousands of civilians and led to the issuance of international arrest warrants for war crimes.
This is why it is risky to take Trump’s words from the weekend to the letter. His comments served a political purpose: to divert journalists’ questions about his opinion about the latest atrocity in Ukraine. And he got good headlines on Memorial Day for being firm with Putin. But recent history shows that once the moment is past, the president often moves to another theme.
“Speaking is easy, and we have been waiting for action,” Beth Sanner, former rise in US information services, told CNN. “You have to press who is creating the problem.”
“Putin doesn’t believe Trump will act,” said Sanner. But this option would require a significant and embarrassing political turnaround, as Trump’s opposition to spend thousands of millions in Ukraine is one of the basis of his second presidential campaign. And it would mean that, as with many of his predecessors, his belief that he could control Putin was wrong.
There is yet another possibility that Ukraine and its European allies fear. Trump can simply wash his hands and claim that none of the sides really want peace, and that it is time for the US to withdraw. Russia would then proceed with its war of wear and attacks on civilians. Its territorial annexation would be validated, creating a disastrous precedent for European security and US role.
This is not a merely theoretical scenario. The isolationist tendency that crosses the Maga Movement makes recent innuendo of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance that the US will retreat seem more than mere trading tactics.
And a way to interpret Trump’s publication on the Social Truth on Monday is like a smoke curtain for an American withdrawal. “This is a war that would never have started if I were president. This is the War of Zelensky, Putin and Biden, not Trump,” Trump wrote.
