The political clash around the increase in IOF’s rates dominated the scene in Brasilia last week and is expected to follow in the next few, as the government and Congress will have a ten -day period to negotiate an alternative solution.
The measure, announced by the government to reinforce the collection and avoid greater blockade in the 2025 budget, generated a strong reaction in Congress, which threatens to overthrow the decree through a project of legislative decree.
“The decree that raises the IOF rates comes to try to raise part of the funds to avoid even greater blockade and contingency,” explained Paulo Gama, political analyst at XP Investimentos, during participation in the program Morning Call da XP On the morning of Friday (30).
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Resistance to measure occurs by both the productive and parliamentarians, who complain about the lack of dialogue and the elevation of the tax burden, the expert pointed out.
One of the problems, according to Gama, is the alert of the Ministry of Finance, whose claim is that without the resources from IOF, it will be necessary to expand the contingency – which would directly affect parliamentary amendments. “Upon penalty of themselves have their spending on reduced amendments,” he said.
For the expert, the political crisis around IOF widens the government’s short -term challenge to make revenue without disorganizing the relationship with Congress.
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The assessment is that there is an important dichotomy between what the government now needs to close this year’s accounts and what can effectively be discussed in Congress, such as administrative reform and exemption review, which are structural and long -term themes.
According to Gama, the executive tries to “make lemon a lemonade” and turn resistance to the decree into an opportunity to advance into longer guidelines – even though these discussions do not bring immediate solution to the 2025 tax gap.
Alternatives
One of the parallel discussions resumed by the government in this regard is about the sale of Union assets as a way to compensate for revenue frustrations.
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A bill that foresees auctions in oil areas can generate between R $ 15 and R $ 20 billion, depending on the price of the barrel, observed the political analyst of XP. However, he points out that the measure is not directly linked to the IOF controversy and does not resolve the immediate impasse.
According to Gama, the discussion once again showed the imbalance between spending expansion and revenue capacity.
“We have a tax framework that allows the growth of actual level expenses at 2.5%. The problem is that it needs new revenue to face the goals of zeroing the deficit this year and achieving primary surplus next year,” said the analyst.
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IR exemption
Gama warns of investors that, in addition to the IOF imbroglio, another sensitive theme that deserves attention should gain space in June: the proposal for income tax reform.
The expansion of the exemption range for those who earn up to R $ 5,000 will cause new revenue resignation, and the government will need to discuss forms of compensation. “It is an important point on both the fiscal side and the micro side of the sectors that can be hit with the proposals,” warned Gama.
In addition to political tension, Rachel de Sá, an investment strategist at XP, also highlighted in the program that the macroeconomic scenario is still marked by the resilience of the labor market and the caution of the Central Bank.
“Unemployment follows at historical minimums, by 6% with seasonal adjustment, which reduces the likelihood of short -term interest cuts,” he said.
