GDP grew 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025. The result maintains the rapid pace of economic activity in Brazil, pulled by agribusiness.
The first three months of the year showed how dynamic the Brazilian agribusiness is. Compared to the last quarter of last year, the sector grew 12.2%.
Without the agro result, the quarterly variation of GDP would have been 0.9%.
The leap is the result of the beginning of what is expected to be a record crop in the Brazilian field. It also helped the result the strong drought that decreased production late last year, compressing the base of comparison.
The service sector also contributed to the result of GDP (+0.3%), while the industry recorded a slight drop (-0.1%).
Already on the side of the demand, the consumption of families is still warm, with an increase of one percent. And the gross formation of fixed capital – which measures productive investments – rose 3.1%.
This type of expense is considered essential to increase Brazil’s potential GDP, which is an estimate about how much the country’s economy can grow without pressuring inflation.
“Whenever we have an increase in investment, there is a possibility of potential GDP. Now the growth of gross fixed capital formation is not something we see in all quarters. This volatility ends up not helping,” says Marcela Kawauti, chief economist at Lifetime Investimentos.
GDP increase in the first quarter of the year gives a negative news relief that has taken the Planalto Palace in recent weeks. In addition, the strong crop can also contribute to reducing the price of food in the domestic market. One of the most sensitive points for the Lula government’s popularity.
“This increase in the crop can help mainly in foods that are not commodities, such as vegetables, fruits, vegetables. Now, this can be offset by foods that have their price dolarized,” says Kawauti.
Despite the positive result, the risk agency Moody’s demoted on Friday (30) the perspective for investments in Brazil. Before, the forecast was “favorable”. Now, stable. The investment note, however, remained the same.
