The changes do not occur overnight. And the Lebanese society He knows it well. They have already lost account of the times in which they have taken run, they have endured their breathing and have been driven towards the heights to land, again, against the hopeful prognostic, in the exact same place. Often, frustration opaque. It almost always ends up becoming resignation. A few romantics already fantasize about the next jump. But the reality is that everything remains the same. After the guerra Against the country of the Cedros, which swept the political dome and the military capacities of the allegedly almighty Hizbulátaking thousands of Lebanese lives, the town continues to make the Shiite political party victorious.
During the month of May, the Lebanese people have finally been able to vote for their local leaders for the first time in almost a decade. The last municipal elections were held in 2016 And then, they postponed three consecutive times since 2022 for logistics, security or financial reasons. Throughout four weeks, the Lebanese have gone to the polls in their region. First, they voted in Mount Lebanonto the north of the capital, which includes the devastated southern suburbs of Beirut, Hizbulá’s fief. Then, he touched the north of the country. Then, Beir and the also razed Scholarship Valley. Finally, on Saturday 24 the final test took place with the voting in the South of Lebanondestroyed by the continuous bombings of the Israeli army, which continue six months after the high fire.
“Without big surprises”
“There are no big surprises in these elections,” he acknowledges Nicholas BlandfordResearcher at the Ideas Atlantic Council and expert in Hizbulá. “The Shií community has supported Hizbulá despite the damage caused during the war, because there has been this feeling that Everyone was joining against of the party, which generates nervousness in the community in case they could become target of other Lebanese communities, of Israel or the United States and be weakened, ”he explains to this newspaper. In the south of Lebanon, the lists of Hizbulá, next to his ally the Shiite movement Amalwere chosen without opposition in 102 of the 272 municipalities, according to the Lebanese media ‘l’Ont-le Jour’.
The participation decreased Regarding 2016. In the south of Lebanon, it voted 37% of the population, compared to the previous 48%. In the capital, a point increased in relation to the last elections, but remained at 21%. Many blame this low participation to immigration of a large number of people of the country from the previous elections due to the brutal economic crisis that has affected the country. But the setbacks of the war, which have left tens of thousands of homeless, and the impoverishment of society following the Financial debacleThey have not prevented the population from continuing to support the ‘establishment’ parties.
Disassemble Hizbulá
“Between the Shií communitya clear change has occurred from the high fire, ”explains Blandford, referring to the main feeling of resentment for the massive losses in the war. Throughout these six months, the formation of a New Government, close to Washingtonand regional changes, such as the fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar el Asadally of Hizbulá, have increased the feeling of isolation of the Shiites in Lebanon. “Hizbulá has not had to try too hard to install this narrative [de que todos se unían en su contra] To promote the Shií community to mobilize in support of their candidates, “adds the researcher, noting that” in many villages, they were chosen by acclamationso it was not necessary to call elections. ”
The Hizbulá-Amal alliance has remained firm and support between the Shií base has not experienced No dramatic erosion. As much as, between the Lebanese political class – and on its most immediate borders, while in Washington’s offices -, it is openly talked to disarm the militia and Make him lose influencethe Shiite population remains faithful to its protector. “Among the Shií community, there is the feeling that other Lebanese communities, Israel and the United States want to make them a second -class community In Lebanon, as were before the creation of Hizbulá, ”says Blandford. The Shiites, plunged into poverty and government abandonmentthey had always been separated from the decision -making processes in the country.
One year for parliamentarians
“However, if their houses continue in ruins and there are no reconstruction perspectives, this support can begin to fall apart, they will begin to point out and blame Hizbulá of his situation, ”adds Blandford. Many things can change in a year. So there is little left for Lebanese parliamentary electionsscheduled for May 2026. That will be the final evidence for Hizbulá. For years, the Chií party had dominated with its allies the Governing elite of Lebanon. But the president’s election Joseph Aoun, Supported by Washington, and the formation of a new cabinet with new faces, after almost three years of political blocking, their influence in the country has reduced considerably.
Both Aou and the Prime Minister, Nawaf Salamthey have insisted on the need for weapons to be only under the responsibility of the State. Hizbulá is the only militia that retained his armament after the end of the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990). “This type of public speeches were almost inconceivable Before October 2023 [cuando Hizbulá empezó a lanzar ataques transfronterizos en apoyo a Gaza]and reflects the General feeling of the countryexcept for the Shiite community, ”says Blandfrod.“ In general, in Lebanon, people are fed up to be dragged to wars for the unilateral actions of Hizbulá, ”concludes the researcher, an expert in the policy of the Cadros country.
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