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The pro-European Mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski and nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, Trump’s admirer, entered this Friday (30/5) in the final stretch of the campaign for the second round of the presidential election. The surveys point to a fierce vote in the elections scheduled for this Sunday (1/6), as neither candidates obtained more than 50% of the votes in the first round, held on May 18.
The mayor’s victory would represent a significant momentum for the liberal government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has divergent positions by conservative president Andrzej Duda. TRZASKOWSKI defends measures such as the legalization of the Civil Union for same -sex couples and the flexibility of the almost total ban on abortion in the country.
Already the victory of Karol Nawrock, 42, admirer of the president, would weaken Poland’s support to the war against. Nawrocki opposes the country’s entry into and criticizes the help offered to Ukrainian refugees.
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Protest during the electoral rally of Karol Nawrock, candidate for the Presidency of the Republic of Poland, supported by the Law and Justice Party in Katowice Square, Poland, on May 29, 2025. In the second round of the election, Karol Nawrocki faces Rafal Trzasskowski, from the civic platform
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Karol Nawrock, candidate for the presidency of Poland supported by the Law and Justice Party, participates in an electoral rally at Praça das Flores in Katowice, Poland, May 29, 2025
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Nawrock at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) of Poland. The event originates from the United States, organized by the conservative American Union, where conservative activists and politicians meet every year and brings together conservatives around the world
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Man wears a red cap with the sayings “Make Poland Great Again” (make Poland great again) participates in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Jasionka, Poland, May 27, 2025
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Polish presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski gestures while speaking to a crowd two days before the second round of Poland’s presidential election on May 30, 2025 in Gdansk, Poland. TRZASKOWSKI, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, supported by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, obtained 31.4% of the votes in the first round, held on May 18, while his opponent Karol Nawrockki, from Law and Justice Party (PIS), received 29.5%. The election is seen as a test to know if the government, with its centrist parliamentary coalition, will be able to overcome the right -wing populism by PIS, which has been in the presidency since 2015
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Rafal Trzaskowski, candidate of the civic platform to the presidency of Poland, participates in an electoral rally in the main square of Krakow, Poland, on May 13, 2025
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In one of his last rallies, Trzaskowski summoned his supporters to mobilization. “If the participation is as high as in 2023, or even larger, we will win this presidential election,” he said in Chojnice in the north of the country.
In the 2023 legislative elections, which gave victory to the Tusk Pro-Coalition, the participation was 74.38%. “We will choose a president willing to build, to gather the community, someone who will always extend his hand. The alternative is more conflict and chaos,” he said.
In his campaign, Nawrocki paid tribute to the victims of the Polish massacres by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II, a sensitive theme in relations between the two countries.
“It was a genocide against the Polish people. There is no doubt: it was a crime committed by Ukrainian nationalists,” he said in Domostawa in southeastern Poland.
“Shock of civilizations”
Analysts predict that a Nawrockki victory can lead to new legislative elections. The end result should only be known on Monday (2/5).
“I wouldn’t open the champagne on Sunday night,” says political scientist Anna Materska-Ssnowska, who classified the election as a “true shock of civilizations” given the ideological difference between the candidates.
The average of the latest polls points to a tight victory of Trzaskowski, with 50.6% against 49.4% for Nawrockki. The result will depend on the mayor of the Mayor of Warsaw to mobilize his voters and the behavior of the far right electorate, who tends to support Nawrockki.
In the first round, held on May 18, far right candidates totaled more than 21% of the votes. Trzaskowski led the first round with 31%, against 30% of Nawrockki. In Poland, the president has a mostly symbolic role, but has veto power.
The current president, Andrzej Duda, used this power to block Tusk campaign promises such as judicial reforms, abortion release and recognition of civil unions. The campaign was also marked by revelations about Nawrocki’s past.
Local press reported that he would have acquired a property suspiciously from an elderly man and that, about 20 years ago, he would have facilitated the entry of prostitutes into a hotel where he worked as security, in Sopot, in the north of the country. Nawrock denied the accusations and classified the complaints as “lies.”
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