Interview || On the eve of the second lap of the Polish presidential elections, the US National Security Secretary was received in Poland as a rock star, taking fan photographs and formal support on behalf of Trump administration to the conservative Karol Nawrockki. For Pawel Zerka, Polish analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), “something unprecedented having America to interfere so directly in the internal affairs of a country.” The polls point to a division of the polaco electorate in half, among those who support the PIS candidate “with an obscure past” and Rafal Trzaskowski, the centrist candidate supported by the Tusk government. That’s why, says Zerka, that this Sunday’s results “will be very important in the way we all think about Trump”
Speaking of perceptions of threats, let us begin with, whose results came to the conference “admirable new (dis) order” in Lisbon, about the feeling of Europeans and non-Europeans in relation to Donald Trump.
Let me start by saying this, so that there are no misunderstandings: In the ECFR we conducted regular polls and the poll I can talk about is the one we conducted between November and December last year in European Union (EU), Europe and other parts of the world.
So, half a year, after the US presidential elections?
Yes, after the elections, but before Donald Trump’s inauguration. In the background, this poll is a kind of instant photo that shows us what were the expectations of people in various parts of the world compared to the Trump presidency and their impact on the rest of the world at the end of last year. But we cannot assume that these data are telling us whatever about the current feeling, because not only has taken possession but has already implemented a series of shocking policies with a lot of impact …
What was the feeling then six months ago, before it implemented these policies?
Six months ago, most of the world – but not Europe – was very optimistic about what Trump would bring, whether or not to be a good thing for world peace, for their own countries, as well as for US citizens. Likewise, many people around the world – but not in Europe – thought he was going to be a peacemaker, that his presidency would increase the likelihood of peace in Ukraine, peace in the Middle East, and a bass in China’s relations between the US and China.
I understand why made a point of making this caveat at the beginning of the interview…
Yes, because people were optimistic and the Europeans very skeptical about all this. And by the way, the Portuguese were among the most skeptical in Europe, which I found interesting, because I always thought of Portugal as a country with strong transatlantic relations, despite its strong European soul.
Yes, and we have, or we had, we used to share an important military base in the Azores and our bilateral relationships date from a long time ago…
Hence my surprise with how critical the Portuguese were in relation to Donald Trump, or maybe not so much critical, more pessimistic as to Trump’s reelection would mean in several areas. However, two weeks ago, we conducted a new, non -global poll, but in Europe, in 12 European countries, to understand how European sentiment is now for Donald Trump and the US, but also in relation to war in Ukraine, defense, to understand what has changed during this period, since Trump became president. But I still can’t discuss the results of this poll.
When will they be disclosed?
At the end of June. In the coming days, my team and I will focus on the analysis and understanding of new data.
What expects the data to show you?
My hypothesis is that the feeling will not be the same as six months ago.
In what sense? Do you think it will have worsened since January?
It would be different outside Europe, but in Europe it could hardly be worse. That is why, in a way, perhaps Europeans simply realized or demonstrated ‘see, we were right about Donald Trump.’ I think what I would be most inclined to look for is whether or not the feelings of Europe have improved its probing, which seems to show that there is something to be called a union around the European flag. It is really the case, so perhaps this may be somehow related to the fact that Europeans feel offended by America on several fronts.
Do you talk about the trade war, the defense, the disdain and blackmail in relation to Europe?
Yes, they may feel offended by Donald Trump and America in the commercial front, where there is suddenly a trade war or a threat of trade war. Secondly, in front of security, where we no longer feel we can trust the US as long as before. And especially with regard to support for Ukraine and maintaining the effort to fight Russia. But perhaps some Europeans also feel threatened by America in the cultural domain, and here I refer above all, for example, to things like, where it accused Europe that it is no longer the continent of freedom and suggested that America is the only advocate of true freedom.
On the sidelines of this conference, Vance also had an official meeting with the German far-right leader and was accused of interference in Germany’s internal policy. And in fact, we just had elements linked to the Trump administration to criticize Poland by the way it is conducting its presidential elections…
Yes, they made criticism and, worse than that, a representative of the US government, National Security Secretary Kristi Noem, went to Poland to give formal support to the conservative presidential candidate.
Did this happen before or after the first lap of the presidential?
It was three days ago, so between the first and the second round [no próximo domingo, 1 de junho]. He has given his explicit support to one of the candidates, which is unprecedented, having America to interfere so strongly and directly in the internal affairs of a country, to give formal support to a candidate and, in a way, to burn bridges with the other candidate, who has exactly the same chances of winning these elections. And therefore, I don’t know if many Europeans won’t feel offended by it, but I can perfectly imagine that if we join all these different layers, economic, safety and cultural, it can all contribute to the feeling that there is a transatlantic tension, but even a transatlantic shock. And that could reinforce the ties within Europe, because nothing reinforces patriotic feeling than an external threat.
Deep down, suspect that this “Trump Storm” has reinforced the union in the EU?
In a way, although it does not believe that Trump has this intention. It may be the unintentional consequence of what Trump is doing. Your offensive against Europe may be coming out of Culatra. But I must say that we should not be too self-scandulatory in the face of this, because this may even be the feeling right now, but at the end of the day, if Europeans may really feel proud of Europe and if you can be a connection with Europe, it will depend on Europe’s ability to actually present and mark a position in a world where it no longer depends on the US.
At this time, it is possible that Europeans may be showing that they support Europe because they feel offended. But European countries, as well as institutions, have to be able to show that despite the weakening of US safety support, they can still support Ukraine and its sovereignty, which can prevent economic catastrophe that could be related to the previous commitment to America. I think, at this moment, the feeling is this. But in a few months, we will see what is the feeling based on the real effects of all this in the world.
Returning to the presidential Poland. The polls show that everything is open, but I just told me that it remains relatively optimistic. Why? After eight years with PIS in power, a Euro and nationalist government, the center right again won in 2023, in an apparent indicator that the Poles really want to be part of the EU and that pro-European feeling is reinforced… but at the same time, this presidential division seems to put this idea in doubt.
I would say that the country is currently perfectly divided into two halves, polarized based on political affiliation. Personally, I am shocked by the fact that, despite the very obscure past of one of the candidates we are only knowing, the right candidate, despite these elements…
What elements do you refer to?
The one that once worked as a proxine. That is, it provided prostitutes in a hotel where I worked as security. We learned that it acquired one of its apartments obscurely. We learned that it participated in Hooligans struggles…
And what shocks it is that none of this has changed public opinion among those who vote for him?
Exactly. I am shocked that this has not changed the support of part of the Poles, which he still has 50% hypothesis of winning these elections. But above all, I think Poland is a case of study on something bigger.
Larger at European level?
Yes, in this context of what we were discussing how Trump is seen in Europe, how Trump impacts European politics, I would say that the result of the Polish elections will be very important.
They will serve as a kind of gauge, is that it?
Yes, and this is not me who I say, it is a colleague I agree with, who says that, deep down, these elections in Poland will give us a framing…
What kind of framing?
So there are various reasons why people vote for Trzaskowski or Nawrockki or stay at home and don’t vote, right? But at the end of the day, as soon as we know the results, there will be a framing for all people throughout Europe and the rest of the world realize what can happen from now on. If Nawrocki wins, Trump’s support for this candidate was of real importance.
That made the difference …
Yes, that Trump continues to make a difference in the internal policy of other countries.
What if Trzaskowski win?
If Trzaskowski wins and if, despite this support from the American administration, Nawrocki loses the elections, then ultra -right candidates throughout Europe and the rest of the world may be more cautious about the support they get from Washington. Because then this support is not guaranteed to them [a vitória]how it works to against mobilize others, the liberal side.
As a Polish citizen, I am obviously very interested in the result of these elections, but also as a European – I really think the result will be very important to the way we all think about Trump and its power of inffience in the internal politics of other countries.
