Tens of thousands of people gathered in downtown Warsaw last Sunday, in opposing rallies in favor of the two candidates in today’s second round of the presidential in Poland. The pro -European mayor of Warsaw, Rafau Chaskovskysupported by the prime minister’s central government Donald Tuskled a “great patriot” to Syntagma Square.
The “Poland for Poland” of the nationalist historian Carol Navrotsky He ended up in the Castle Square in the Old Town of Warsaw. Today’s ballots will not only judge who will be the next Polish president but also whether the democratic reform that began a year and a half will be completed.
In the first round of the elections on May 18, the central, Philo -European Chasskovsky, with 31.4%. His opponent, a candidate with the conservative populist law and justice (PIS), which ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023, followed with 29.5%. As far as the second round is concerned, the polls have not made a clear pioneer. Taking into account the small difference in the first round, clear conclusions cannot be drawn. Most polls give the two tie candidates with 46.3%, while some see Chasskovsky’s lead, with its percentages decreased.
“Theories are many about why support for Chasskovsky has diminished. Certainly the chaos of the presidential debate is responsible and his failure to prevail. In the meantime, Navrotsky, from where he was considered a “dark” candidate, managed to promote himself as a more intimate and tough politician who seems to be a decisive leader. “ explains to “Step” or Anna Gzimala-BownProfessor of Political Science at Stanford University in the USA.
However, Navrotsky also had his bad moments during the election campaign, having recently been fired for his alleged involvement in a series of economic scandals – though he and his party rejected the accusations.
The Trump factor
Determined factor may be his relationship with the US president Donald Trumpof which he is a staunch supporter. In early May, Navrotsky had a small meeting with Trump in the US, which divided Poland. Praised by some journalists who characterized her ‘Capable of changing electoral events’while others denounced it as flamboyant and superficial. In addition, last week the US Secretary of State Security Christie Noem said that “Carroll (ed: Navrotsky) must be the next Polish president ».
It should be noted, however, that only 31% of Poles have a positive picture of Trump (from 80% two years ago) and Prime Minister Tusk has occasionally criticized the US president for the “His pro -Russian attitude” and ‘Anti -Ukrainian feeling’. However, the French “Monde”, bringing the recent example of the Romanian elections, points out that “Nationalists in Central and Eastern Europe often continue to admire Trump”, Believing that political alignment with his beliefs could be enough to ensure protection under the US military umbrella.
The role of the President in Poland is not as decisive as the Prime Minister – he was initially much more powerful in the new Polish Republic after the fall of communism in the country in 1989, but after his hectic presidency Lech Valesa During the period 1990-1995 the new Constitution of 1997 has limited the presidential powers. This means, among other things, that given the more general consensus in Poland on the need to strengthen Ukraine in the Russian war, and the limited role played by the president in the representation of the country in the EU, elections are unlikely to change foreign policy or extrovert.
However, Ms. Gzimala-Back explains to us that nevertheless the stake in these elections is great for the country and thus explains the large mobilization of the world on the streets. In particular, the President may vetoed legislation passed by parliament, and may also refer bills to the Constitutional Court, which may delay parliamentary vote. The current president, Andrei Dunda (supported by PIS) has made the most of these limited powers, vetoing much of the legislative agenda of Prime Minister Tusk and the reforms aimed at overthrowing the controversial policies of the former PIS coalition, including critical laws. It has vetoed proposals such as the new government’s move to close the public broadcasting body (which served as a PIS carrier) and in a bill that allows access without a medical prescription to the next day’s pill.
As a result, PIS can prevent the efforts of the government coalition from rebuilding a rule of law and proceeding with reforms that would bring Poland to even greater alignment with EU policies. Thus, much of the damage that had not been caused by Polish Republic. Jaroslav Katsinsky of PIS in October 2023, the hopes of a quick democratic recovery were many.
After all, a possible victory for Prime Minister Tusk’s fine, Chasskovsky, in today’s elections would give a significant boost to his government and allow him to finally implement his program, since the former chairman of the European Council is in dispute with the President of the European Council. On the other hand, a Navrotsky victory would probably expand the political impasse in central Europe of 38 million inhabitants.
