Poland is a country of agitated history. Also recent. For years, making advances to the ultraconservative trends that today sweep the world, the populist ultra -right of the Law and Justice Party (PIS) occupied both the position of prime minister and president, taking the nation for some shady paths: threats to the rule of law -of the separation of powers to the free press -, ultra -nationalism and ultra -protectionism, imposition of a vision of a vision of life Catholic … an operation model that would have made, today, could not even be part of the European Union.
Brussels, alerted by these systematic violations, came to freeze commune aid funds, given drift. But in December 2023 there was a turnover: the prime minister became and took the helm. “The restart of democracy,” said the chronicles. Poland still has problems, like any country, but has recovered international stability and respect. And yet, the support that the ultras had in the past, together with the lack of powerful left -wing alternatives, makes now a return to the extreme right in the presidential elections that this Sunday address their second and final return.
30 million Poles have to decide if they want Rafał Trzawski as president, backed by the Central-Liberal Government Coalition Civic Platform (KO), OA Karol Nawrocki, supported by Ultra Law and Justice (PIS). The choice is crucial to measure the strength of Tusk, because it seeks to overcome presidential obstruction and consolidate change.
The results of the first round for Trzawski (31.36 %), the current mayor of Warsaw, in front of Nawrocki (29.54 %), president of the Institute of National Memory (IPN), and the surveys for the second round indicate an even lower difference.otros 11 candidates were eliminated. Today there is a practical technical draw, with a slight advantage still for the councilor, of a couple of tenths.
The duel that will face the two most voted candidates in the first round will reveal the existence of two models of Polish society, two ways of understanding politics and two opposite visions of how the future of the country should be.
For the first time in history, the two main candidates organized support marches simultaneously in Warsaw, an act that underlined the intensity of this polarization and the struggle to mobilize their bases. Trzawski, a center-liberal figure, is presented as a pro-European and reformist politician. He has placed the emphasis on women’s rights, accessibility to public services and their experience in local management, and its program includes the liberalization of abortion laws.
In his last rally in the coastal city of Gdansk, Trzaskowski referred to the role of the city in the solidarity movement while heading to his supporters. “We all remember the workers of the shipyards who said: ‘Enough of fear, enough of lies, enough of contempt.’ Today, once again, we must remain united,” he said.
“For you, it will be only a few steps to the Electoral College, but together we can mark a milestone towards the realization of our dreams and aspirations,” he added. On the other hand, in his closing speech, Nawrocki appeared as a candidate who is “simply one of you.”
He described himself as “a citizen of the Polish state who has traveled a long way to compete with a man created by a ‘political laboratory'”. According to Polish law, all campaigns and political advertising must cease at midnight. No public comments are allowed until the closing of the polls on Sunday.
On the other hand, Nawrocki, a historian backed by PIS, a exboxer to which connections with organized crime and the ultras of the sport are attributed, embodies a more conservative and nationalist position. His vision prioritizes Polish interests, which he considers in conflict with the Franco-German axis in Europe, and includes proposals such as VAT reduction and the revaluation of pensions.
The second and final turn comes in a growing regional tension promoted by the Russian War in neighboring Ukraine, security concerns throughout Europe and internal debates about the rule of law. The two profiles, so different, will define the Polish response to come.
Volodimir Zelenski and Donald Tusk hug behind a press conference in Warsaw.
How much does a president weigh?
Although the Polish president has an almost symbolic role in daily governance and foreign policy, his powers are significant, especially in periods of “cohabitation” such as the current one, where the government is of a political sign (coalition of Donald Tusk) and the presidency of another (Andrzej doubt, aligned with the PIS).
The President has the right of legislative veto, he can send laws to the Constitutional Court (whose members were mostly appointed by parliaments dominated by the PIS), he is commander in chief of the Armed Forces, and must approve all the important appointments, such as ambassadors.
The current president, doubt, has actively exercised these powers to hinder the reforms of the government of Tusk, especially in the judicial field.
The reforms
One of the most transcendental issues of these elections is the restoration of the rule of law in Poland and its relationship with the European Union. During the eight years of PIS government, significant changes were implemented in the legal system, criticized by the EU and international observatories, which even led to the freezing of European funds.
The Tusk government set out to reverse these reforms, but the president has blocked most of these efforts. Trzawski has promised to sign the necessary laws to put an end to “chaos and dualism in the Judiciary”, while Nawrocki has promised to keep the judges appointed by the PIS and slow down the reforms.
However, the first round of two weeks ago evidenced that there is a deep fatigue with the duopoly that has marked the rhythm of Polish politics for almost 25 years, and the ultra -right options monopolized one in five votes. This was interpreted as an emergency signal and a reminder that much of the Poles wants a radical change in the political landscape, a situation that will take advantage of the extreme right, lends to “collect the fruits” of the PIS, now perceived as a more conventional party after eight years in a row in power.
This advance is not merely electoral, but has permanent consequences, including greater tolerance towards hate discourse in the public debate. In addition, you can force conventional parties to radicalize your messages so as not to lose voters.
Campaign axes
The campaign has been intense, marked by debates, controversies and the battle to mobilize the electorate. A record participation in the first round (67.31 %) was observed, and the expectations for the second round are even higher.
The barracks of both candidates are working on mobilization; The Trzawski organized a door to door campaign, while the PIS used the figure of Jarosław Kaczyński (chief of the PIS) and the support of the solidarity union to mobilize his voters.
Trzawski has pledged to support the restoration of judicial independence, to repair relations with the EU, which reproached the changes of law and justice and rebuild the democratic institutions of the country, everything that was sunk. Tusk has tried to change some laws, but has encountered the resistance of the outgoing president, doubt. Meanwhile, Nawrocki, although less Franco than his party allies, is seen as a probable defender of the changes of law and justice that the courts politicized.
The Ukraine War is still in the background, being Poland the country that has hosted the most refugees in these three years of contest and showing a clear opinion of support to kyiv, in line with Brussels. Both candidates support the continuity of support for Ukraine, but in different degrees, with sensitive differences. Nawrocki believes that Ukraine should never join NATO, while Trzawski believes that kyiv should be able to join someday, when the current war ends. Trzawski is shown as well as a firm defender of Ukraine and also supports his integration into the European Union. However, he has also warned that he would limit the access of Ukrainian refugees to social benefits.
And it is that among the main proposals of Trzawski are the development of the arms and technological industry of Poland and ensure a solid Warsaw position in the European Union. Nawrocki, prioritizes maintaining close links with Washington, which he considers the only credible guarantor of Polish security. And with respect to Ukraine, support diplomatic and military aid, but with a more transactional approach, while criticizing kyiv’s lack of cooperation in certain historical matters.
New data from the State Research Agency CBOS shows, in addition, that Poles have the most negative opinion of their relationship with the United States since the fall of communism. However, there is no doubt that the United States is essential to build both European and Polish security. Some, including Nawrocki, argue that Poland “needs the certainty that a future president will care about Polish-American relations.” For its part, Trzawski states that Poland must “strive to achieve the closest possible cooperation between the United States, the European Union and Poland, because together we are a power.”
Socially, abortion remains a divisive issue in Poland, especially after law and justice imposed an almost total prohibition. Trzawski supports the flexibility of restrictions and has supported proposals to legalize abortion until 12 weeks gestation, as well as introduce civil unions for couples in the LGBTIQ+community.
In contrast, Nawrocki opposes any change in current prohibitions. In fact, in his campaign he set a clear position as a defender of traditional conservative values. The nationalist vision candidate also aims to withdraw the country from the Migration Pact and the European Green Pact, and criticizes the granting of more rights to couples in the LGBTIQ+community.
