The forecasts pointed to a divided Poland between Europeanism and ultranationalism and data at the close of the electoral colleges ratification This polarization: Rafal Trzaskowskimayor of Warsaw and liberal candidate, will be the next president of Poland, although with a more than adjusted result: 50.3 % of the votes, if the data of the URNA poll on the ballot box of Ipsos are confirmed, broadcast on the Polish TVP TV. To his rival, the ultra -nationalist Karol Nawrockithe law and justice party candidate (PIS), 49.7 %are attributed.
“We have won, although at the edge of the razor. We knew it would be difficult,” were the first words of Trzawski, a minute after this data was spread, excited, but restrained and while the jubilation exploded at the headquarters of its citizen platform (PO), the party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. In Trzawski are deposited with the hopes of the Polish government to put an end to the veto that, from the presidency, has so far imposed the outgoing president, Andrzej doubtrelated to Pis, to its reforms.
“At the end of the night, we will be the winners. We will save Poland,” Nawrocki said in parallel, with combative gesture and apparently trusting that the final results, which may not be known until Monday, turn around that marker.
In the first round of the presidentials it had registered and a record participation, with an index of 68 % among the almost 29 million Polish voters. For the second round the record was exceeded until it was 72.8 %, according to data the Polish Electoral Commission.
Experts considered that a high mobilization would benefit Trzawski, representative of the will to Consolidate Poland as a country of increasing weight within the European Union (EU) and Puntal of the East Flank of NATO. Each partial data of participation released during the day was received by the Trzawski team as a good symptom, embodied in the succession of cascade tweets where citizen mobilization was praised.
The pending agenda of the Prime Minister
On a triumph of Trzawski, a politician with a European background, in addition to charismatic mayor, depends on the end of the veto to the reforms promised by Tusk in the electoral campaign that led him to the Government Headquarters, in 2023, but that have been systematically blocked by doubt. In Poland, The president exercises the Headquarters on the Armed Forces and has the power to veto virtually all laws.
Tusk has not been able to reverse the dynamics marked by the previous eight years of governments led by the PIS, in line of permanent confrontation with the EU for eroding the rule of law, undermine the independence of the Judiciary or pretend to exercise its control over the media.
The hopes of Victoria of Polish ultra -nationalism were deposited in that neophyte in politics and exboxer that is Nawrocki, with ties past with murky businesses and prostitution, but that in the eyes of the PIS represents the proximity with the citizen on foot, discontent with the European elitism attributed to Tusk and the mayor of the capital.
Trzawski had won the first round, held in May, by a minimum advantage. But in the final stretch until the second round the polls pointed to a draw. The mayor of Warsaw had dedicated his last day of the campaign to seek the vote outside the capital. He toured six stages in the North Polish, including Gdanks, the hometown of Nawrocki. In Warsaw, no one dared to advance forecasts, beyond that it could be a frantic night until consolidated results, already Monday.
“It is a key moment for Poland. We are a decisive country for European defense. We have to make ourselves heard internationally,” said Pawel Mrozek, a young activist who until the last minute was still calling the vote before the presidential palace, although without opting for any candidate. Midnight from Friday to Saturday the so -called electoral silence had been imposed, which in Poland takes with remarkable rigor.
The endless pulse between Tusk and Kaczynski
The European flag, together with the Polish, was omnipresent in the capital and also before the presidential headquarters that will take doubt until August, when its mandate expires. It could be interpreted as a favorable gesture to the Europeanist option. But another symbol, also before the presidential headquarters, pointed in the opposite direction: the monument to the victims of the torea catastrophe occurred at the Russian airport of Smolenskin 2010. The 96 occupants of the presidential plane died, including then head of state, Lech Kaczynski. Successive investigations attributed to bad weather and fog the accident. For the leader of PIS, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Twin brother of the late president, there were failures in the preparations for the trip and no interest in investigating them by the then head of the Government -or Tusk-.
The choice between Trzawski and Nawrocki had airs of reissue of eternal struggle between Tusk and Kaczysnki. Both politicians have been facing at the polls, directly or indirectly, since 2007. Then he won the departure Tusk, who thus ascended for the first time to the Government Headquarters. He was re -elected in 2011, but four years later he failed in his attempt to jump into the presidency. The revenge was taken in 2023, winning the parliamentary elections and ending the eight years of exclusive domain of the PIS.
The pressure of the new ultra -right
Tusk needs a Europeanist presidency to Consolidate Poland among the great EU partners and in the group they invest in defense, since it dedicates 5 % of their GDP to military spending. The Pis, on the other hand, together with the objective of retaining the presidency has before him another challenge that does not come from the liberal Europeanism, but from a vigorous and rejuvenated ultra -right: the Confederation, the party to which an agitator of social networks called Slawomir Mentzen has raised third force.
For Mentzen’s electorate, including many young people, Kaczsynki Pis represents a bird and rural Poland. They want to break with the aid to the family or the field that mimates Polish conservatism. Mentzen’s strength is a high -risk factor for classical ultranationalism. Nawrocki has sought in the campaign to attract this electorate, but his party can end up engulf or eroded at least by that younger formation that, which unlike the declared anti -rure pis does seek – and obtains – the proximity with Moscow.
