Without much hope, and with Kiev’s accusations that the already undermines him, the second round of Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul will begin on Monday (2/6). It brought the only “fruit” of the exchange of 1,000 prisoners, and since then Moscow has escaped drones attacks on it – the largest Drones attack on May 26th.
“The Ukrainian outcome will be judged exclusively by whether Donald Trump, who is extremely unpredictable, will put pressure on the, not only by offering carrots but also using a whip, in the form of intensified sanctions against Russia,” commented Kevork Osani Centre specializing in international security and Russia.
Since Putin “believes he is winning” and, at the same time, Trump is “not really dedicated to Kiev”, why does the Russian president “compromise?” Askanian wonders.
What is the conclusion from the telephone conversation between Trump and Putin on May 19?
The fact that it lasted two hours and was characterized by the Russian side as essential and quite honest indicates a dynamic exchange of views. But the Kremlin continues to insist on addressing the main causes of the conflict.
What does the phrase “main causes of conflict” conceal?
Indicates the desire to overcome a simple territorial arrangement. It refers to Ukraine’s pro -Western orientation. It remains to be seen how far Moscow wants to reach its requirements in this field. Would it be satisfied with a Finnish Ukraine? Or will it insist on changing the regime and constitutional modifications to Ukraine, for example for safeguards in relation to the use of the Russian language or the Moscow -related Orthodox Church, two possible points of pressure in the future? We do not know exactly what was said during the Trump-Putin conversation, but we know that the demands of the Russian president are still maximalist and that this would require American, in addition to European pressure, to change. Consequently, Trump’s threat will abandon the negotiations particularly important.
Trump threatens to leave Ukraine because it is a “European issue”. Then why does it continue and intervene? What is its profit as it always acts on trading terms?
Indeed, Trump is an extremely trading president. It calculates on the basis of profit and loss and would hesitate to explain on its base why it still spends billions of dollars on Ukraine as it drastically reduces government agencies and social security. I don’t think he works for the Russians, but his general worldview is partly based on the calculations of a New York real estate tycoon and on this worldview, Ukraine seems to be a harmful business.
What exactly does Putin set for the end of the war? What are Ukraine’s red lines?
In addition to attaching the territories under its control – especially Crimea – Russia wants, at least, a iron guarantee that the rest of Ukraine will not be westernized. This would require painful concessions on the Ukrainian side. As things are, you will be overwhelmed if Moscow agreed with the Finnishization of Ukraine, let alone its accession to the EU. It would probably require constitutional exchanges and changes that will establish Russia’s influence in the country. Only if Moscow’s position is significantly weakened in the coming months (or years), would a compromise that would accept the Ukrainian side.
Washington does not appear opposed to territorial concessions from Ukraine.
Yes. The real question is what form these territorial concessions will take. Will they be legally binding and permanent – a devastating result for Europe given its not -so -distant history? Or will it be a de facto arrangement, that is, tolerable but not recognized by the international community? I don’t think Putin would accept the second.
Is there anything that can change the data?
Adding Trump whipping to his carrots, clearly threatening to increase support for Ukraine if talks fail due to Russian intolerance. As things are, the momentum is in favor of Russia. This can change if Ukraine resists and the impact of the war penetrate the center of Russia – affecting the standard of living in Moscow and St. Petersburg and expanding recruitment by the region to these political critical cities. But it would require long -term commitment from the West, and especially the US, as well as Ukrainian human resources. Whether Kiev is able to withstand years of war, when it has clearly recruitment problems, the question is largely.
What will guarantee security in Europe if Putin comes out of Ukraine?
Normally, the answer would be Article 5 of NATO (ed. That the attack on a member state is considered an attack on all Member States). But we do not live in normal times. Even the perception of US reduced commitment to European defense could cause Putin experimentation at NATO border, especially in the Baltic countries. So far, the Kremlin has respected this limit – except for some gray zone businesses.
