Median for the IPCA fell from 5.50%to 5.46%, less than one percentage point above the target ceiling of 4.50%; 2025 primary deficit will follow 0.60% of GDP, according to the market
The revealed that the primary deficit of the public sector consolidated for the year 2025 remains in 0.60% of the. The fiscal target established by the government for this period is to reach a zero deficit, with a margin of tolerance of up to 0.25 percentage point of GDP. For the following year, 2026, the primary debt is expected to increase to 0.66% of GDP, while the stipulated fiscal target is a surplus of 0.25% of GDP. This change reflects an adjustment on government economic expectations. In addition, the projection of the nominal deficit to 2025 was revised, from 8.93% to 8.89% of GDP. For 2026, the expectation remains in 8.50% of GDP, indicating a certain stability in predictions for next year. Net debt in the public sector, in relation to GDP, also presented changes in estimates. For 2025, the median rose from 65.70%to 65.80%, while for 2026, it is expected to reach 70.13%.
IPCA
The median of the Focus report for the 2025 IPCA fell from 5.50% to 5.46%. Now is less than 1 percentage point above the target ceiling of 4.50%. Considering only 55 estimates updated in the last five business days, the measure went from 5.50% to 5.42%. The projection for the 2026 IPCA remained at 4.50% for the third consecutive week glued to the goal ceiling. A month earlier, it was 4.51%. Considering only the 54 updated estimates in the last five business days, the median was also 4.50%.
The Central Bank expects the IPCA to fly 4.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, according to the trajectory released in the statement of the May Monetary Committee (COPOM). The end of next year is the relevant horizon of the board. At the last meeting, the Committee increased the Selic rate at 0.5 percentage point, from 14.25% to 14.75% the highest level since July 2006. Since September, when the squeeze cycle began, interest has risen 4.25 points.
From this year, the inflation target is continuous, based on the accumulated IPCA in 12 months. The center is 3%, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage points for more or less. If the IPCA is out of this interval for six consecutive months, it is considered that the BC lost the target. Focus’s median for inflation of 2027 remained at 4.0% for the 15th consecutive week. The projection for the 2028 IPCA went from 3.81% to 3.85%. A month earlier, it was 3.80%.
Selic
The median of the Focus report for Selic at the end of 2025 continued at 14.75% for the fourth consecutive week. Interest has been at this level since May 7, when the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) increased by 0.5 percentage point. Considering only the 40 updated projections in the last five business days, more sensitive to news, the median for the end of 2025 also remained at 14.75%.
In the minutes of the May meeting, the Copom stated that the basic interest rate is at a “significant contractionist” level and “has already contributed and will continue to contribute to growth moderation”. “Given the lags inherent in monetary policy mechanisms, such effects are expected to deepen in the next quarters,” the committee said. A week earlier, in the statement of his decision, the collegiate had already made his balance of risks to symmetrical inflation and abandoned forward Guidance, leaving the possibilities open for his next meeting, on June 17 and 18.
“For the next meeting, the scenario of high uncertainty, coupled with the advanced stage of the adjustment cycle and its impacts accumulated as they are observed, demand additional caution in the performance of monetary policy and flexibility to incorporate the data that impact inflation dynamics,” he said. The median for Selic at the end of 2026 was stable at 12.50% for the 18th consecutive week. Taking into account only the 40 updated projections in the last five business days, the intermediate estimate has also remained at 12.50%. The projection for the end of 2027 continued at 10.50% for the 16th week in a row. The median for Selic at the end of 2028 remained 10.0% for the 23rd consecutive week.
*Report produced with the aid of AI
Posted by Fernando Dias
