Karol Nawrock celebrated that he had united “the patriotic field, the field that wants a normal Poland, without illegal immigrants”
JOSÉ HENRIQUE MARIANTE
Berlin, Germany (Folhapress)-Nationalist Karol Nawrockki, an antisystem historian who started the campaign doing push-ups and arrived at Donald Trump’s oval hall, led the second-round presidential round in Poland early on Monday (2). According to a survey by the Ipsos Institute, which already considers results, Nawroki had 51% against 49% of liberal Rafal Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw.
Surveying ballot box failed to define the winner at the closing of the ballot box this Sunday (1st). The first numbers showed Trzaskowski’s numerical advantage (50.3% to 49.7%), which almost immediately stated victory: “This is a special moment in the history of Poland. I am convinced that this will allow us to move like a torpedo.” The then 2 percentage error margin of error did not allow, however, any conclusion.
A new survey reversed the trend at 23h local (18h of Brasilia), with Nawrocki numerically ahead, but still inferior to the new margin of error, 1 percentage point. Statistically, the indefinition continued. The candidate stated that he was confident and celebrated that he had united “the patriotic field, the field that wants a normal Poland, without illegal immigrants.”
According to the Polish electoral authority, the final result will only be known on Monday (2).
The high attendance, greater than 70% according to the surveys, will be a new record in presidential elections if confirmed by official numbers, underlining the importance that the claim has taken: the ratification of the 2023 parliamentary election, which brought Donald Tusk back to the position of Prime Minister, or the foreshadowing of a new conservative offensive in a key country to the European Union.
Without a political past, Nawrock was hosted on law and justice, PIS, the caption of the current president, Andrzej Duda.
In the Polish political system, the president has the ability to propose and veto laws, which has prevented Tusk from reversing the conservative and autocratic contours implemented by PIS in the last decade. Brussels even blocked transfers to the country.
Tusk’s return unlocked the funds, but his fragile majority coalition has not yet been able to undo, for example, the reform of the judiciary, described as an affront to the state of law by the EU. No wonder Nawrock was selling his candidacy as a plebiscite of the Tusk Administration, which was a premie between 2007 and 2014, with an performance that raised him to the presidency of the European Council.
An eventual victory of the nationalist could force Tusk to renounce, which would cause the anticipation of parliamentary elections, scheduled so far to 2027. The prime minister has said that it will not do it, but it will all depend on the behavior of Parliament in the light of the ballot boxes.
Poland, a rising power in Europe, plays a strategic role in the continent and has a larger army than those of Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Also bearing the largest defense budget of NATO countries, the Western Military Alliance. It is the first barrier to Vladimir Putin’s expansionism and its role in support of neighboring Ukraine has become fundamental since Russia invaded the country in 2022.
This year’s election was also marked by the rise of the far right, which achieved in the first round the best result since the fall of communism. Libertarian Slawomir Mentzen reached third place, with 14.8% of the votes. With promises to zero tax and prevent Ukraine from the NATO, his voting voting up to 29 years reached 35%. Grzegorz Braun, a declared anti -Semitic and homophobic, won 6.3% of the votes.
Trzaskowski, who led the opinion polls before the first round, was surprised by a minimum margin about Nawrocki at the polls, 31.3% against 29.5%. Surveys on the eve of the second round showed a technical draw, with the difference between the two candidates within the margin of error, which persisted until at least half of the investigation.
The fierce dispute made Trump and allies get involved in the election personally. Kristi Noem, National Security Secretary, went to Poland last week looking for votes for Nawrocki. So far, the US president had not harvested an international victory for his populist offensive since returning to the White House in January.
