The current mayor of Warsaw, the European liberal Rafal Trzaskowski, has a slight advantage with 50.3% of the votes
The two candidates from the second lap of the presidential election in Poland, this Sunday, are tied, according to a poll to the Boca das Urnes, which does not allow to anticipate a winner.
The projections, released in the Polish broadcasters, give the current Mayor of the Chamber a short advantage, the European Liberal Rafal Trzaskowski, with 50.3% of the votes, against 49.7% of his conservative opponent, independent historian Karol Nawrockki.
The Ipsos study has a two -point margin of error.
The Electoral Commission is reported to publicize the final count of the votes on Monday, but the result can be known earlier.
According to the projections, known shortly after the closing of the voting assemblies, at 21:00 local (20:00 in Lisbon), the participation stood at 72.8%, well above the 67.31% verified in the first lap and near the record of 74.4% in the legislatures of October 2023.
About 29 million pollas were called for this decisive vote, which confronted two opposite views for the country, in parallel with a test of the weight of the political forces behind the two candidates.
At stake was Trzaskowski’s liberal and pro -European agenda, supported by the main forces in the government coalition -led by the Civic Platform and Prime Minister Donald Tusk -against a conservative and nationalist line of Nawrockki, who, although independent, received support from law and justice (PIS), the current largest opposition party, after eight years to last legislatures.
In the first lap, on May 18, the two candidates had already been very close, with 31.36% for Rafal Trzaskowski and 29.54% for Nawrockki.
Analysts predicted that the key to victory would be in the capacity of the two candidates to mobilize their base to appear this Sunday at the polling station, as well as to captivate the 11 defeated electorate in the first lap.
In this sense, the far right emerged as a potential decisive factor, since the two candidates in this political field achieved about 21% of the votes, which could favor the nationalist historian.
Following the scrutiny, Nawrocki even signed a pact with Slawomir Mentzen, which included the refusal of taxes, defense of national currency (Zloty) in the face of the euro and the rejection of Ukraine’s adhesion to Nato and the sending of Polish military to the neighboring country, despite not predicting the end of Kiev support to combat Russian invasion.
The 42 -year -old Karol Nawrock’s agenda includes economic proposals such as tax cuts for large families, opposition to the adoption of the euro and a very explicit skepticism compared to European Union policies such as green agreement and migration pact, and defend a close relationship with the United States.
As for Trzaskowski, 53, he is an assumed Europeist with promises to liberalize abortion laws and protect the rights of sexual minorities.
His victory would mean a more friendly presidency for Donald Tusk’s government coalition, after a year and a half of tense coexistence with the current head of state, Andrzej Duda, aligned with the PIS party and that reached his mandate limit.
Duda widely used his veto power, slowing the executive’s liberal agenda, which sought to reverse the controversial judicial reform staged by PIS on charges of authoritative magistrate control attempt, the rapprochement to Brussels, as well as the revision of the abortion law.
In opposition, a victory of Nawrock would foresee the hardening of the presidential’s political thinking, in even more tumultuous cohabitation with the government, and several analysts consider that this scenario could open differences in the government coalition and open a political crisis.
