I commented with Governor Hernández de Cos that the annual report of the Bank of Spain 2023 should be mandatory for all politicians, journalists and various opinioners who had something to do with the Spanish economy. Its chapter 2, on the challenges of the Spanish economy, or the 4, on the housing market they will pass to the annals of anthological studies on the problems of Spain and how political polarization is the main obstacle to the progress of the country. And I was able to tell it, with some knowledge of the cause because the mixture of hobby and profession has led me to read all (I think) the report of the Bank of Spain since Luis Ángel Rojo, as director of studies of the entity, gave form and meaning. I remember the seminars that Professor Ernest Lluch organized in the Faculty of Valencia to comment that they continued, even after his first election as a deputy in 1977 and where, for example, we learned that it was the M3 and the M4, as well as its importance to combat two -digit inflation we had then.
I have read, in them, a multitude of criticisms of the action or passivity of the government in turn in the face of some problems, as appropriate, already in democracy, to an independent entity whose main social function, in this area, is precisely to offer an argued vision, even if it is different from that of the government in turn whose incentives and responsibilities are not, nor can it be, the same as those of a study service of an organism such as the Bank of Spain. I have not always agreed with its proposals. Several of them, I remember when I was part of the government, seemed unfair or naive. But, I never thought that the solution was to silence neither that, nor any other critical or divergent voice, which, in addition, had gained majority respect. Perhaps, because I have lived under the dictatorship, I am very sensitive to the autocratic trend of some rulers to impose silence or submission around it.
That is why I affirm that, seen what is happening with the Studies Service of the Bank of Spain after the publication of its latest report with its omissions and misrepresentations (the silence about the fiasco of the pension reform is clamorous), I reaffirm myself in the idea that it is not positive for the democratic system, today in play, jump from the government- any government- to the maximum decision of an entity that they have between their functions, control and criticize the government. It is a matter of principles, not of people, although the latter would also give for another article.
The Bank of Spain cannot be at the service of the government and, much less, of its governor. Because it is an independent public institution that must protect its autonomy. Whether or not, according to what he does, says or proposes, for which there are channels of correction and freedom of expression. It is curious that one of the most cited and novel boxes of this last report is the one that analyzes the institutional deterioration produced in Spain and its negative impact on economic performance and, in particular, productivity. After analyzing two indicators of institutional quality and comparing them with the OECD and the EU in both cases, Spain is below the average of countries and, in addition, its deterioration has been more pronounced than in the rest. Without a doubt, when the data of 2024 and 2025 is analyzed what happened now with the Bank of Spain will not help improve our result at this point.
The analysis of housing, even adjusting data compared to last year, can not help pointing out that there is an accumulated deficit of supply of about 450,000 homes, since, among other things, in the last three years, it is said, there have been no new urban developments for finalist land. This diagnosis, on its own, invalidates the housing policy focused on prices and places the solution of the problem where it is: an urgent national plan to build 450,000 additional homes, both priced and free, for sale and for rent, through an administrative mechanism expressof authorizations.
I have been struck by the analysis it makes about one of the biggest challenges in Spain: the productivity of productive factors. After, again, adapting a new ad hoc indicator, points out the known: since 1998, Spain has been having a productivity performance worse than the great European economies. But then, it distinguishes two stages: 1998-2019, where the GAP reached 17 percentage points with the average of the three best and, from the pandemic where it has been reduced to 10PP without it being clear to me the reasons for that improvement, especially in an economy that, as it is said in another section of the report, has based part of its exceptional growth in the incorporation of labor (immigrant)
It is time to begin to understand the causes that explain the exceptional behavior of the Spanish economy that, in 2024, has grown 3.2%, when the Eurozone did it at 0.8%. And we have done it, moderating inflation, creating employment and exterior surplus. And, although I have had to read Entrelines, I have believed to find a call for attention that, because of its importance, I would like to highlight here: we grow by consumption (with the public in a prominent way) and the services (tourist, but also, not tourist). Private investment does not take off and the public is still, in relation to GDP, below the eurozone, despite the injection received from the next generation that can end up being a flash that goes out when they finish, without having managed to turn stable. However, I find that we have just commented on the latest annual report of the Bank of Spain and that different times are coming. But will they be better? Who?
Jordi Sevilla He is an economist.
