Faced with Trump’s commercial tensions, the organization for economic cooperation and development projects an expansion of 2.9% to 2025 and 2026, after a growth of 3.3% by 2024.
A reduced on Tuesday (3) its annual forecast of world economic growth due to commercial tensions and uncertainty caused by which will have a particular impact on . After a growth of 3.3% in 2024, the organization for economic cooperation and development projects an expansion of 2.9% to 2025 and 2026, from the updated perspectives.
In the previous report, released in March, the organization formed by 38 countries and headquarters Paris projected a 3.1% growth for this year and from 3% to 2026. Since his return to power in January, Trump imposed generalized, allied and rivals tariffs that shook the world commercial order and disturbed financial markets.
“The risks (…) have increased significantly and the degradation of economic perspectives will be felt around the world, almost without exception,” said OECD chief economist Álvaro Pereira. The effects, however, will have nuances: “Deceleration would focus on the United States, Canada and Mexico, while China and other economies should undergo more limited adjustments,” says the OECD. The economist warns that an intensification of “protectionism and uncertainty” with new tariffs could further deteriorate growth and feed inflation.
United States slowdown
The perspective is particularly dark for the United States. The OECD expects the US economy to record a “clear” deceleration from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% this year – 0.6 point less than in the previous forecast – and to 1.5% in 2026. “This is explained by the remarkable increase in the effective rates of imports and retaliation measures adopted by some business partners,” the organization said.
The Republican President imposed a 10% basic rate on imports across the planet, with separate rates of 25% for steel, aluminum and cars. Trump threatened to apply higher rates for products from dozens from countries, but suspended the adoption of the measure by July to give negotiations more time. The OECD also pointed to the “high economic uncertainty linked to public action, the pronounced contraction of net immigration and a significant reduction” in the number of federal employees.
While expected “moderate” annual inflation between G20 economies, at 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, the United States is “an important exception,” according to the report. Inflation in the world’s largest economy is expected to reach 3.2% this year, above the Federal Reserve’s goal (Fed, Central Bank) due to increased consumer prices.
China and Brazil
The OECD has slowly reduced 4.8% to 4.7%, the forecast of growth this year to China, the second largest economy in the world and the country affected by the highest tariffs announced by Trump. Brazil maintains its prospect of growth unchanged to 2025 at 2.1% and has an increase to 2026, 1.6% (+0.2 point), but with a clear deceleration after the expansion of 3.4% of 2024.
“Family consumption remains the main engine of growth, driven by strong wage increases,” according to the report. Inflation must remain above “from the goal of 3%” in 2025 and 2026. The perspective for the euro zone economy also remains intact, with a growth of 1% scheduled for 2025.
Negotiators from the United States and the European Union are expected to meet in Paris on Wednesday (4) for commercial negotiations. In addition to the United States, another country with a considerable review is Japan: the report reduced the country’s growth forecast from 1.1% to 0.7% by 2025.
*With information from AFP
