How will Moscow respond to the impressive Ukrainian drone attacks on their strategic aircraft fleet?
So far, Kremlin has been silent, saying only that it is waiting for the results of a formal investigation into the attacks, which have reached a thousand to thousands of kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
But fury is being openly discharged in the Russian media, with pro-kremlin experts and bloggers to boil with appeals to retaliation, even nuclear retaliation.
“This is not just a pretext, but a reason to launch nuclear attacks against Ukraine,” said prominent bloggers ‘Two Majors’ on their popular Telegram channel, which has over one million subscribers.
“After the mushroom cloud, we can think of those who lied, made mistakes, and so on,” they added, referring to Kremlin’s inevitable search for scapegoats to the fiasco.
At least one prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, asked cautiously, warning of a social media publication that the use of nuclear weapons would “lead to true political isolation”.
But the popular blogger Alexander Kots demanded that Russia “attack with all its strength, regardless of the consequences.”
Of course, the Russian hard line routinely cries out for the nuclear obliteration of Ukraine, while issuing threats from little veiled, but ultimately empty, directed to Western allies. The fact that they are doing it again, after a series of such painful attacks, is not surprising.
But it would be wrong to be too complacent and consider all Russian nuclear threats as mere propaganda.
In fact, there are some worrying reasons to take a little more seriously the small possibility of a devastating Russian response this time.
Firstly, several Russian experts commented on how the destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers can be interpreted as a violation of Moscow’s legal nuclear threshold.
Kremlin’s recently up -to -date nuclear doctrine – which establishes the conditions for a launch – states that any attack on a “critically important” military infrastructure that “disturbs nuclear forces response actions can trigger nuclear retaliation.
The Ukrainian operation was “reason for a nuclear attack,” said Vladmir Solo -Solovyov, an incendiary host of Russian state television, appealing to attacks on Ukrainian presidential office in Kiev, and beyond.
Whatever legality, the barrier to a Russian nuclear response continues to be happily elevated and it is likely that such an attack be rejected in the Kremlin circles as an impractical exaggeration.
To begin with, it would poison relations with the main Russian trading partners, such as China and India, as well as provoking potential military action against Russian forces.
The inevitable mass casualties would certainly be a universal derision, isolating Russia even more at the international scene.
But here’s the problem: Kremlin may now feel overwhelming pressure to restore deterrent.
Ukraine says it has hit with underwater explosives to the bridge that connects Russia to Crimea. SBU/Telegram
Image released by SBU shows the damage to the Crimea Bridge. Ukraine Security Service
It was not just the recent Ukrainian drone attacks, in the depths of Russia, who humiliated Moscow. Shortly thereafter, Ukraine launched another bold attack on the strategic Kerch bridge, which connects Russia to Crimea – the third time the vital road and railway connection was hit.
The taking of the Kursk region in western Russia by the Ukrainian forces last year was another hard blow, leaving Kremlin fighting to free his own territory. However, weekly, if non -daily attacks from drones to energy infrastructures and Russian airports continue to cause widespread disturbances away from front lines.
At the same time, Ukraine’s allies have gradually lifted the restrictions on the use of weapons provided by the West against Russia, further challenging what the red lines of Moscow was believed to be.
Ukrainian army soldiers use Bradley American combat vehicles in Sumy on 15 January. Scott Peterson/Getty Images
Few doubts that Kremlin is eager to respond decisively, but how?
A former Russian minister told CNN that Moscow’s most likely response would be more “barbaric” attacks on conventional missiles and drones against Ukrainian cities, the type of Ukraine people have suffered for years.
“There is no other way to follow, because Russia is not able to launch a massive military offensive. There is not enough staff to do so,” said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy minister who currently lives outside Russia.
“People talk about potential use of nuclear weapons, etc. I don’t think this is on the table. But once again Putin has often shown that he is resorting to barbarism and revenge.”
In other words, highly unlikely, but the nuclear option cannot be completely discarded. This Ukrainian conflict has already taken several unexpected laps, namely the large -scale Russian invasion itself by 2022.
And while Ukraine and its supporters have fun with the amazing successes of recent military operations, stirring a humiliated and injured Russian bear can have dangerous and frightening consequences.
