Lula would lose to Michelle Bolsonaro and would draw with Tarcisio at ES, points out Paraná Research

Survey released by the Paraná Research Institute on Tuesday (3), shows that the president (PT) would lose to the former first lady (PL) and would draw with (Republicans), in the state of Espírito Santo, in the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic in 2026.

In a first-turn scenario against former first lady, Lula obtained 29.8% of voters’ voting intentions, while Michelle Bolsonaro came out of 38.5%. Still in this simulation, former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears with 10.1%of voting intentions, the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), with 4.8%, and the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (Union), with 3.2%. Of the interviewees, 8.6% said they vote blank or null and 4.9% did not respond.

Already in a scenario with Tarcisio de Freitas, President Lula has 29.8% of voting intentions and Tarcisio, 30.4%. The percentages would configure a technical draw taking into account the margin of error of 2.6 percentage points of the research. Still in this simulation, Ciro Gomes appears with 10.5%, Ratinho Junior with 6.6%and Ronaldo Caiado with 2.5%. In addition, 13.7% of respondents declared a blank or null vote, and 6.1% did not know or did not want to give their opinion.

The survey also tested a scenario between President Lula and former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), which is ineligible until 2030 by decision of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). In this simulation, Bolsonaro would win the dispute with 46.1% of voting intentions, while Lula would have 29.5%. Then Ciro Gomes, with 8.9%, Junior Mouse, with 3%, and Ronaldo Caiado, with 1.4%. White or null votes add up to 7.4%, and 3.5% of respondents said they did not know or preferred not to give their opinion.