The Russians lost rare aircraft, explosions hit his railway network and on Tuesday and great Russian pride – illegally built Crimean Bridge. The Kremlin is strategically silent, and through the spokesperson, it tells you that you need to wait for the investigation.
On the other hand, the ex -president, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, on the other hand, referred to: “retaliation is necessary”.
The fact that the Ukrainians planted an unpleasant blow to the Russians was evidenced mainly by the outraged reactions of Russian war bloggers. Russian telegram channel Fighterbomber called Sunday attack “Black Day of Russian Remote Aviation”, formerAdvisor to Kurski governorate, blogger Roman Alochin, “Russian Pearl Harbr”.
“This is a direct undermining of the nuclear strategic balance of forces and reducing the nuclear safety of our country,” the Russian war telegramkanal referred to two Major.
“Well, the new phase of the confrontation. It was only a matter of time before FPV drones start working in our deep tulle. They started,” Alexander Koc said at the correspondent of Komsomol Truth. A blogger known as the Roman Lajt, in turn, that the bombers that the Ukrainians struck were made in times of the Soviet Union and are therefore a “non -renewable strategic resource”.
That is why the culprit immediately began to look for Russian networks. Who committed that Kiev could go so far?
Some of them, after the attack, let him in the Russian commander of the Air and Space forces Viktor Afzalov. For example, blogger Vladislav Šurygin accused the command of the air forces and the command of the bases of negligence and that the threat of sabotage ignored that airports were far from Ukrainian range.
“As a result, at the time of the airports to the airports of the air defense crews, they devoted themselves to Bohviec and there was no organized response to the attack. The staff was in day off. Most officers rested,” he said.
Alochin for a change that what has happened is a “judgment” for the entire security system – from the Ministry of Defense to the Ministry of the Interior.
“Not for power, cops or soldiers, but for the system of their work,” he wrote, adding that it is necessary to return to the model of strength forces from Soviet times when soldiers “came to serve their homeland and working people and not because of the mortgage”.
The losses that the Russians hurt
On Sunday, the Russians really lost, as one of the bloggers called it, a “non -renewable strategic source”. It is said that it will take years to build what the Ukrainians destroyed in a few minutes.
Experts point out that Russians are not able to just repair or buy affected machines.
Ukrainian correspondent BBC Pavol Aksjonov in this context that types of aircraft, such as the bombers TU-95 or TU-22M3, have not been produced in series for more than 30 years and it is difficult to get their components and components. Although it is not possible to assess the degree of damage to the machines from current information, according to Aksjonova, it is rather unlikely that affected aircraft will be able to fly in the near future.
The fact that the Russians could quickly restore the lost squadron is not seen by real or Ukrainian military analyst Oleksander Kovalenko.
According to him, Russia will be a particularly painful loss of the TU-160 bombers, which he described as the most expensive and unique aircraft in Russian airy-consmic power. “Russian aerial forces have lost not only two rare aircraft, but in fact – two unicorns in the herd,” he said.
It recalls that the biggest catch of Kiev was the damage to the aircraft of early A-50 warning, which Russia uses to coordinate its fighters and detect Ukrainian air defense missiles. The Russians also do not have much – it was assumed that they had less than 10. Three were able to destroy the Ukrainians.
The rocket attacks will not cease
Although the Russians lost part of the combat squadron, experts do not expect the Sunday attack to constantly limit their opportunity to do large missile attacks against Ukraine. Thanks to the bombers capable of carrying up to 16 flight track rackets and flying more than two thousand kilometers.
The agency states that the Russians will suffice with a small number of bombers, which means that the pace of rocket attacks is unlikely to slow down.
Russian analyst Kirill Mikhailov also considers it unlikely that the Ukrainian attack would affect Russian ability to carry out rocket strikes. As he pointed out that the key is the Russian pace of missile production in this context.
It is still not entirely clear how many bombers have really destroyed the Ukrainians. Although the Ukrainian Secret Service SBU is talking about 40 aircraft, a source close to the Kremlin for Bloomberg said that the number of affected aircraft may be approaching number 10. For the time being, experts are based on publicly available satellite images that can prove that the machine has actually been destroyed or damaged.
They have so far confirmed them from publicly available sources.
Russians will have to reconsider defense
It can be assumed that the Russians will have to protect their squadron more than before.
For example, Aksjonov states that they will probably have to increase airport protection, deploy more air defense or jammers and can be built even expensive fortified hangars, which are called by Russian bloggers.
According to the Ukrainian attack, it will probably force Russia to reconfigure its air defense. This is to cover the larger territory.
In this case, the Russians can be inspired by their ugly enemies – Ukrainians have been shooting the offensive drones of Šahíd for two and a half years, which also attacks the Russian army at distant Ukrainian areas, mobile units.
Check over Russian paranoja
The Ukrainian attack had another significant dimension.
Analyst Kevin Riele points to the fact that the Ukrainians basically shook a system that supports paranoia from everywhere present spies or sabothers in Russian society, keeping control of it – just because he convinces everything under control. As an expert evaluated, but if suddenly comes a real threat, the system may prove incompetent.
In this case, the Ukrainian communication will probably not be accidental when the Ukrainians willingly shared some of the operations of the operation.
Immediately after the attack, for example, the SBU boasted that the people who helped her are safely and safely, and in case the Russians begin to be demonstrating to arrest, it will be a performance for a home audience. President Volodymyr Genskyj for a change mentioned that the “offis” operatives was located in one of the Russian regions just below the nose of the FSB Regional Directorate.
“These statements are calculated to portray the Russian security system as vulnerable. Zelenskyj has shown that Ukraine can take control of the Russian social paranoia,” Riele wrote for.
Even according to the well -known Ukrainian economist Roman Šeretmet, the SBU was able to get offensive drones to the air bases, distant and thousands of kilometers to the front, is not just a tactical success.
“This causes psychological and economic costs to Russia. Now every Russian truck is becoming a potential threat. Every driver is suspicious,” the Russian authorities will be forced to increase supervision of internal security, slow down military and civilian logistics in the country and not trust their own citizens.
They could help the Ukrainians, whether directly or even indirectly. Such as Russian truckers who were instructed to arrive at a specific destination, unaware of what they are carrying.
