It was a surprising and devastating attack that some hysterical Russian war bloggers call . Now the whole world hopes to know what more comes after the Ukraine attack on Russian strategic aviation last Sunday. Yesterday he gave a track, damaging those in another special operation.
There is a clear thing for the analyst John E. Herbst, director of the Eurasia Center of Atlantic Council and former United States ex -ambassador to Ukraine: “Ukraine had every right to do what he did”“After having spent the last four nights in an anti -aircraft shelter in Odesa and kyiv while the Kremlin continues with its massive attacks with missiles and planes not manned against the cities of Ukraine, in a war of aggression that Moscow launched, I can assure you that Ukraine had every right to do what he did on June 1: Attack strategic bombers in five bases throughout Russia“He has written in an analysis of his thought tank, based in Washington.
Unlike Moscow’s attacks against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, “Ukraine did not commit any or violation of international law by destroying these Russian airplanes, which are used periodically against civilians”contrary to what the troops do, which in their accelerated attacks of these weeks has turned the civil targets, such as the towers of residential buildings, in their favorites.
“Complexity and audacity of the web operation “Ukrainian -which implied the smuggling of drones in Russian regions from Múrmansk to Irkutsk and its launch against the advanced Russian bomber Tu-95 and TU-22 and the intelligence planes A-50 The ingenuity, together with the determination, are the strategic advantages of Ukraine To stop the Moscow aggression war, “he says.
According to press reports, Up to 40 airplanes were reached. The Ukraine Security Service, which planned and executed the operation, says the attack destroyed 34 % of the Russian strategic bombers capable of transporting cruise missiles. Russian defense sources affirm that, although some airplanes caught fire as a result of the attack, there were no real damage. However, some Russian war bloggers “write as if the damages were important and videos in social networks show the destruction of at least some airplanes.”
“Regardless of the number of destroyed airplanes, it is logical to conclude that Moscow will be more cautious with the location of its remaining bombersS, as it was last year when Ukrainian drones began attacking Russian military assets. This will further reduce the role of Russian bombers in attacks on the front, infrastructure and cities of Ukraine, “says the old diplomat.
Of course, Moscow still It has abundant missiles and drones to continue His murderous campaign against civil objectives in Ukraine. “But the web operation revealed the vulnerability From Russia to Ukrainian unconventional attacks. This has been a key feature of war, evident in the Successful counteroffensive Ukrainian of 2022, the withdrawal of the Russian Navy of the center and west of, and the offensive of last year, “
It is also important to note that TU-95 and TU-22 are able to carry weapons nuclearhence his sensitivity. His loss, then, “could weaken The aerial component of the Moscow nuclear triad, which also includes terrestrial components (missiles) and maritime (submarines) “. Russia considers the United States its main adversary. As noted by the US National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, in the evaluation of this year, “Russia, as well as Chinaes adversary of the United States. “Like the Russian armed forces dismantling On the part of Ukraine in the war, this operation “It constitutes another Ukrainian contribution to US security”the analyst undoubtedly states.
Beyond the battlefield, “the impact of this operation is perhaps even more significant”, since “Confundently contradicts the dubious generalized opinion that the war is inevitably leaning in favor of Moscow.”. “This same assumption explains why the Russian President has rejected numerous US President Donald Trump, and why he has refused to send a document to Ukraine with the terms of the Kremlin for a high fire before the peace conversations of June 2 in Istanbul that he proposed,” he says. The authoritarian president “correctly described that proposal as dilatory tacticsbut in the context of this bold operation he finally announced that Ukraine I would attend To conversations. At the moment, Moscow He doesn’t talk about boycoting them“, Athens.
“Nuclear weapons are mainly a rhetorical tool to intimidate Western leaders and avoid supporting Ukraine with greater firmness”
Most observers expect some kind of answer From Kremlin to Ukrainian attack, of course. While some Russian bloggers of war, “deranged“They ask for the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, it is more likely that Moscow” responds following the current operational lines, for example, carrying even more massive air attacks“While the destruction of airplanes implies” a hard blow for the Russian Air Force and Putin’s own prestige “, its importance “It does not compare with the Ukrainian counteroffensive of autumn of 2022”contextualize. “As for Putin’s plans in this war, nuclear weapons are mainly a Rhetorical tool To intimidate Western leaders and prevent them from supporting Ukraine with greater firmness, “he understands.
A key question is how the Operation will answer. Several hours after the news was known, the only information in the White House was that kyiv. The attack occurred a few days after the visit of senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal to Ukraine, where they announced that The Senate will advance this week with its expected bill to impose additional important against Russia.
“Trump has been subject to growing criticism for his reluctance Really pressing Putin after the breach of the Russian president of the conditions of Alto El Fuego proposed by Washington and accepted by kyiv. Will Trump allow the sanctions bill, which has 82 copatrocinadores, is approved in the Senate?“Herbst asks. And he answers:” I could call Putin, point out the last military achievement of Ukraine as one more reason to accept Trump’s commitment solution for a high fire and point out that political pressure in Washington to take more measures against Russia is growing“.
The US president adds, “can also point out the effective operation of Ukraine, which baffled Russian aerial defenses, as one more reason for the United States to need its Proposed antimisile defense system in whose construction Ukraine It could be an exceptionally capable partner“.
And more: “Trump could transmit the message that if Putin He does not dare to accept a high fire, new significant new ones are coming. That would be a form Cunning To take advantage of Ukraine’s success on the battlefield to achieve Trump’s goal: a lasting peace in Ukraine, “he concludes.
