Russia and Ukraine remain as far away as before, with the two countries at war unable to achieve a significant advance in direct meetings in Istanbul.
Although there has been agreement to change more prisoners, Moscow and Kiev remain deeply divided on how to close their long conflict in Ukraine.
Russia was particularly inflexible, which would essentially be equivalent to a Ukrainian surrender.
Expectations have always been low for a Kremlin commitment. But Moscow seems to have eliminated any evidence of willingness to soften his requirements.
The again requires Ukraine to withdraw from four partially occupied regions that Russia has attached, but has not captured: a territorial concession that Kiev repeatedly rejected.
The document states that Ukraine must accept strict boundaries to its armed forces, never join a military alliance or host foreign troops, nor acquire nuclear weapons.
It would be in its most hard-line form, unacceptable to Kiev and much of Europe, which sees the country as a barrier against an additional Russian expansion.
Russian conditions
Other Russian requirements include the total restoration of diplomatic and economic ties, specifying that no repair will be required anywhere and that all Western sanctions against Russia are suspended.
It is a Kremlin’s list of desires that, although familiar, says a lot about how Moscow continues to imagine the future of Ukraine as a subdued state under Russian influence, without a significant army of its own or real independence.
Dmitri Medvedev, former president and Russian Prime Minister, now a high security official, openly said on Tuesday that Moscow’s goal in peace negotiations is not “reaching an agreement,” but to reach a “quick victory.”
He stated that this was the “meaning” of the Russian memo.
This inflexible position arises despite two important factors that could have made Kremlin reconsider.
First, Kiev developed the technical ability to attack deeply within Russia, despite the impressive difference in territory and resources.
Those on bases thousands of kilometers from Ukraine are a powerful illustration of this.
The Ukrainian government, it seems, has some letters in the sleeve and is actually using them.
Secondly-and possibly more dangerous to Moscow-Kremlin’s latest row demands come despite their own peace efforts in Ukraine.
Trump has already expressed irritation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin after the massive Russian attacks on Ukraine last week.
But now, Trump himself is under pressure, as a cornerstone of his foreign policy to his second term – bringing a quick end to the war in Ukraine – seems decidedly unstable.
There are powerful levers to trigger if the Republican leader chooses, how to increase US military aid or impose new severe sanctions, such as those supported by the US Senate.
One of the main supporters of a Senate bipartisan bill aimed at imposing new “paralyzing” measures on Moscow, Senator Richard Blumenthal, accused Russia of “mocking peace efforts” in Istanbul’s conversations and, in a carefully written publication in the X, accused Kremlin of “doing Trump and Tolos America.”
In Istanbul talks today, Russia offered more of the same—mocking peace efforts by rejecting a ceasefire, in effect playing Trump & America for fools. 1/
— Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal)
It is not clear, at the moment, how the US president will react, or what he will do – whether he will do anything.
But the result of the war in Ukraine, specifically the negotiation of a peace agreement to end it, became “embarrassed” linked to the current White House administration.
The fact that Putin once again remained irreducible and presented an inflexible response to calls for peace can now force Trump to act.
