Rural populations on the planet may be underestimated at 53% to 84%, a new study concludes.
The world population is growing (at the outset,). We humans spend last year’s that of lives. Today we are already 8.2 billion.
But these are the UN estimates. There are those who estimate that we are many more – thousands of millions more.
A Finnish study, in March in Nature Communications“Provides, for the first time, evidence that a significant proportion of the rural population may be absent global population data sets ”.
Who says it is the author of the investigation Josias Láng-Ritterfrom the Aalto University, quoted by, pointing to the finger to the censuses and the population density data by which the UN is guided. Census are limited: there are hard -to -reach areas.
These data sets may thus be underestimated rural populations in 53% a 84%according to the study. As it says Jonathan Kennedyresearcher at Queen Mary University of London, in an opinion article recently published in: The overpopulation “rarely comes down to numbers.”
Governments, agencies and researchers may be based on completely false population maps – These maps that are essential, for example, in the planning of infrastructure, the allocation of health resources, the response to disasters and the response to epidemics, the authors enumerated.
“We were surprised to find that the royal population living in rural areas is much higher than the global population data,” confesses the author. These data “broadly support decision making, but its accuracy has not been systematically evaluated.”
The study compared the five most commonly used global population data sets-Worldpop, GWP, Grump, Landscan and GHS-Pop-with population data from over 300 rural resolving projects in 35 countries that gave the team a unique and more accurate source of rural population data.
Data were only obtained thanks to companies that build damswhich are legally required to make certificates to determine the compensation of displaced residents. The systematic subcontage of rural populations, in different world regions and periods of time, was the conclusion obtained from the crossing of this data with spatial satellite image information.
2010 data sets were considered the most accurate, but still underestimated rural populations in 32% a 77% (The study focused from 1975 to 2010 due to the limitations of available data on latest dam projects. Although more recent population maps have been published for 2015 and 2020, researchers argue that data collection issues continue to resolve).
Discrepancies are particularly large in countries like China, Brazil, Australia, Poland e Colombiawhere the most detailed local data facilitated the subcontage exposure.
Currently, about 43% of 8.2 billion people worldwide live in rural areasthe authors remember, and decisions about where to build roads, hospitals and schools also depend on population estimates. If rural populations are underestimated, entire communities can be poorly served and sub -financed.
“In many countries, there may not be sufficient data available at national level, so they depend on global population maps to support their decision making: we need a paved road or hospital? How many people can be affected by natural catastrophes such as earthquakes or floods?
“Although our study shows that accuracy has improved a little over the decades, the tendency is clear: global population data sets omit a significant part of the rural population. With the same basic practices in force, it is unlikely that slightly improved input data can correct this level of bias. Decades, ”says the Finn.
Tomás Guimarães, Zap //
