GENIAL Survey/Quaest released on Thursday (5) shows the president (PT) in difficulties in for next year.
According to the research company, the petista lost advantage in second-round simulations of the presidential dispute and now tie technically with the governors of São Paulo (Republicans), Paraná, (PSD), and Rio Grande do Sul, (PSD), as well as former first lady ().
In a second round scenario in which the current president competes with Tarcisiolula has 41% of voting intentions, compared to 40% of the opponent. Since the margin of error is two percentage points, the situation is considered a technical draw. Blank or null votes and voters who will not vote add up to 14%, and the undecided, 5%.
In the company’s previous survey, in March, Lula still had an advantage over Tarcisio: the rates were 43% to 37%. Months earlier, the front was much more loose: 52% to 26%.
2,004 interviews in 120 municipalities, last Thursday (29) until Sunday (1st). The confidence level is 95%.
In the second round simulation between Lula and Ratinho Junior, the draw is also configured: the petista would have 40% of the votes, and the rival, 38%. The undecided add up to 4%, and white, null and voters who will not vote another 17%. In March, the score was 42% to 35%.
When the opponent presented is Michelle Bolsonaro, Lula has 43% of the votes, compared to 39% of the opponent. In this case, the difference is at the limit of the margin of error (two points to more or less), and the genius/Quarest also considers a tie frame.
The situation also occurs when Lula’s rival is Eduardo Leite. The petista gets 40% of the votes, and the gaucho governor, 36%.
The survey also shows Lula and (PL) tied with 41% of voting intentions in second round simulation. The former president, however, is ineligible until 2030 because of conviction in the Electoral Court, although he says he will apply.
The current agent maintained the leadership in simulations with three other names listed for the dispute.
When the opponent in the second round is the licensed deputy (PL-SP), Lula wins 44% to 34%.
In dispute with the governor of Minas Gerais, (Novo), the petista has 42% of voting intentions, compared to 33% of the opponent.
Finally, in a second round scenario between Lula and the Governor of Goiás, (União Brasil), the score is 43% to 33%.
The research company also asked if the current president should apply for reelection. They said not 66% of respondents – the rate was 52% in the December survey.
In addition, the survey points out that 65% understand that Bolsonaro should give up the candidacy now and support another candidate. The former president promises to insist on disputing the presidency, a behavior that tends to shuffle the choice of another name of his political field
To 17%, if Bolsonaro is not a candidate, the name of the right in presidential succession should be Tarcisio, and 16% answered Michelle. Another 11% cited Junior Mouse.
The genius/Quarest also researched the rejection of the candidates. In this regard, the two main political leaders in the country are ahead.
They said they know and would not vote in Lula 57%, compared to 40% who answered that they know and vote.
Regarding Bolsonaro, the numbers are similar: 55% said they know and would not vote, compared to 39% that they answered in the opposite line.
Another with high rejection is Eduardo Bolsonaro, with 56% of answers “Know and not vote”.
In spontaneous research (when candidates’ names are not presented to the interviewee), Lula has 11% of voting intentions, and Bolsonaro scores 9%.
The QUEST survey is funded by Digital Investment Broker Genial Investimentos, controlled by the Genial Bank.
