The high standard logistics warehousing market is on the rise in the country, with 34% appreciation in the square meter (m²) In the last 3 years, and the lowest vacancy rate registered since 2016, reaching 8.1% In the first quarter of 2025. Data are from Colliers, Multinational Real Estate Corporate Services and Investment Management, and bring the most recent landscape of the area.
According to the market report, the demand for spaces in the period was twice higher than the delivery of the new stock, which led to a decrease in vacancy.
The forecast is to expand the built area by 2 million m², considering the works with delivery scheduled over 2025. This is expected to add to the area of 28 million m² already available in the country.
The numbers reflect the good time of the sector, after 2024 close at the lowest vacancy rate so far, being first below 10%, according to the First Look survey by Jones Lang Lasalle Incorporated (JLL).
New locations grow, and country expands area
As New locations in the first quarter surpassed the 1 million m² markmost (70%) in São Paulo and Minas, according to Colliers.
In the same period, the country received 350 thousand m² of new stock. The states that widened the areas of logistics warehouses were Pernambuco, with 139 thousand m²; Minas, with 54 thousand m²; and Santa Catarina, with 53 thousand m².
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As a result, the country increased the area available for logistics warehouses, reaching 28 million m² built – an increase of 62% over the first quarter of 2021.
“Companies are increasingly focused on differentiating themselves through agility in delivery, which requires strategically located warehouses near consumer centers,” says Paula Casarini, CEO of Colliers Brazil.
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Pressure in Prices
High demand pressures the values of the m², which had appreciation of 34% In the last 36 months, reaching R $ 29.2/m²/month, on average, in the country.
Price increases in regions near large urban centers, ports and highways. The highest value is SP, with R $ 32.5/m²/month; And the lowest is Sergipe, with R $ 22/m²/month.
Regions near the state capital have average prices above R $ 30/m²/month, including Guarulhos, Greater ABC, Barueri, Cajamar and Embu.
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“The limited offer in certain regions, added to the high construction costs and the scarcity of land near the main urban centers, should continue to press up the rental prices,” says the Colliers report.
According to Casarini, besides the traditional Rio – São Paulo axis, states such as Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Santa Catarina, Bahia and Pernambuco have been gaining prominence as emerging logistics poles. “These regions stand out for their transportation infrastructure – with ports, airports and good highways – and have high population density and growing regional consumption,” he says.
In SC, the growth of imports pulls the demand for logistics infrastructure. Data from Sort Investimentos, which manages R $ 3.9 billion in assets of its kind, point to 20% appreciation in the North Coast of the state, cities such as Navegantes, Itajaí, Araquari and Garuva, near Joinville and the border with Paraná.
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Real estate funds
This appreciation and the heating of logistics warehouses reflect directly on real estate funds through equity appreciation, as the discharge of the m² raises the value of the assets detained by the funds.
In the first quarter of this year, the businesses were marked by two significant operations involving real estate funds, which bought logistics portfolios.
One of them involved the purchase of warehouses in Cajamar, Jundiaí and Ribeirão Preto, in SP; In addition to Duque de Caxias, in Rio. In all, the business involving the four actives totaled $ 1 billion, with estimated CAP 11%, according to Colliers.
The other operation totaled R $ 1.1 billion and involves the acquisition of projects in Manaus (AM), Rio and Cajamar (SP). Cap Rate was 9%.
“Institutional and individual investors are looking for modern, well -localized and efficient logistics portfolios. This strengthens the thesis that logistics yields tend to gain even more relevance in the short and medium term,” says Casarini.
High demand
The current scenario of high in m² and low vacancy rate reflects a combination of structural and conjunctural factors of consumption, retail and logistics infrastructure.
Casarini cites the expansion of consumption and the change in the logistics profile, with consumers wanting more agile and faster deliveries. “This takes the demand for warehouses out of large axes, and drives the decentralization of distribution centers,” he says.
There is also a movement of the brands, which seek to reposition itself by reviewing logistics chains to be more efficient, sustainable and technologically prepared.
Casarini also highlights the dynamism of retail and industry 4.0. “Companies are integrating omnichannel solutions [integração de todos os canais de vendas]requiring greater logistics capillarity, ”he says.
Other factors that also integrate the appreciation of m² are the changes in the country’s logistics network, with greater proximity to diverse transport modes, and the increase in the cost of construction and the cost of capital.
“With this, medium cities outside the major centers are consolidating in this scenario, driven by three main factors: connectivity, competitive cost and decentralization of the supply chain,” says the CEO.
