The cross between the geography of the vote of the last presidential dispute and the 2022 census religion data, released on Friday by IBGE, reinforces how President Lula (PT) is unfavorable among evangelicals. The growing portion of Brazilian society – are now 26.9%, while Catholics fall – supporters of religion disapprove of the current government more than other Brazilians, as research have pointed out, and the states with the highest incidence of evangelicals opted by weight by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the last election.
Of the 14 most faithful places than the national average, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in just three. On the other hand, the petista has only lost in three of the 13 states where the followers of religion are less than the national standard. Amazonas, Pará and Tocantins, in the North, are the places where Lula fled the rule, and only in the territory of Pará got comfortable advantage; In the other two, the difference was less than three points. That region is the most evangelical in the country, in proportional terms: 36.8% of residents claim to be believers.
At the other end, the southern states are those in which, although there are fewer evangelicals than on the Brazilian average, the president lost.
Catholic scenario
Last week, the genius/Quaest poll about the Lula government reinforced the size of the difficulty the president faces among the faithful: 66% of them disapprove of management, more than 57% of the overall scenario and 53% of Catholics who do not approve.
On the eve of the second round of 2022, Datafolha indicated that 69% of valid evangelical votes would go to Bolsonaro.
– Politics is no longer a mere reproduction of economic life. Values and attitudes have entered the public sphere and determine electoral behavior as well as economic well-being-says Quaest CEO Felipe Nunes. -As we have shown in our research, the most conservative religious public votes much more influenced by their values than by the result of their well-being. This prevents a left -wide government, such as Lula’s, from accessing hearts and minds of this segment.
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The continuous growth of evangelicals indicated by the census, evaluates Nunes, “is the most important social transition that Brazil has lived in the last decade”:
– She is the driving force that boosted the turn on the right that the country gave during this period. And this has electoral consequences, as the government will hardly be able to access the majority of this segment.
The state in which Lula defeated Bolsonaro more comfortably in 2022, Piauí, is also the most Catholic in the country: 77% of people follow Catholicism. Consequently, Piaui are also the least evangelicals: only 15.5% adhere to that faith.
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Despite the favorable history between Catholics, the government’s current situation was complicated to Lula’s point also has more disapproval than approval between them for the first time in this mandate. According to the Quaest survey, 53% disapprove and 45% approve.
Here, however, the movement seems to symbolize more the president’s deterioration as a whole than a fundamental religious variable, since the idea of ”Catholic vote” is less notorious than that of “evangelical vote.”
– The evangelical has a position regarding their values more conservative than the group of Catholics, even if we identify in the leaders of the two religions similar to abortion, for example. Evangelicals, on average, are more conservative – points out political scientist Vinicius do Valle, director of the Evangelical Observatory.
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Ideological campaign
In addition to the values, the researcher recalls the historic relationship between the PT and the Catholic Church, which refers to the role of base ecclesial communities in the foundation of the party.
– That was even lost, but there is. Already in relation to evangelicals, when there was a contact with leaders, it was much weaker, and in the last period the main political leaders of the evangelical field campaigned against the PT, an ideological campaign in the sense that the evangelical could not vote on the left. There was a political mobilization against the left.
Another correlation between the census’s religious data and the 2022 election exposes that Lula only won in 11 of the 50 most evangelical cities in the country. Most of them are from unfounded municipalities, of reduced electoral influence, but shows the disconnection between the followers of religion and the political field of the president.
