Entity says that collection via oil threatens investments

The (Thinking Energy Institute) issued a note on Monday (9.jun.2025) “Collection voluntarism” of the measures of the president’s government (PT), focused on increasing, can shake investors’ confidence and compromise the country’s future energy.

The plateau a set of actions that can result in up to R $ 35 billion In extraordinary revenues, being R $ 20 billion by 2025 and R $ 15 billion in 2026. The idea is to use part of the funds to relieve the Union’s cash, due to the freezing of R $ 30 billion in the budget and the pressure to retreat in the increase in IOF (Financial Operations Tax).

The institute states that the state “It’s more than a colleague: it’s a moral guarantor of predictability” And that institutional trust is essential to maintain the attractiveness of investment in capital intensive sectors such as oil and gas.

The entity highlights that recent changes, such as the reoneration of raw oil exports, changes in the sector’s tax regime, Repetro, and revisions in reference price criteria, were adopted without proper technical debate and without a regulatory transition compatible with the project maturation cycle.

“In this context, abrupt collections – as unilateral revisions, exceptional taxes or untimely changes – must be treated with caution. Sustainable development requires coherence, not voluntarism.”says the text.

As showed the Poder360the proposals under study by the government include:

• Early sale of Union oil in the fields of Atapu, Mero and Tupi – can yield R $ 15 billion in 2025, if Congress takes advantage of the PL (Bill);
• Change in the special participation decree in the Tupi field – can result in R $ 6.5 billion to the Union in 2025 and 2026;
• Review of the oil reference price, with potential to raise R $ 2.5 billion in the period;
• new bids and signature bonuses, which total R $ 1.25 billion; and
• Technical reevaluation of deposits, such as Sapinhoá, to increase the union’s slice in production.

For the Thinking Energy Institute, the way to expand the collection in the sector is structuring measures, such as the approval of the PL (which deals with environmental licensing), the incentive to the production of natural gas and the increase of the field recovery factor, now below the world average.

The entity also defends:

• tax immunity to exports;
• strengthening of ANP with more technical and budgetary autonomy;
• efficient and transparent use two royalties;
• Predictable regulatory transition for changes in tax regimes and concession or sharing models.

“Brazil has real assets: relevant reserves, competent operators and installed infrastructure. But none of them prosper under signs of instability or institutional opportunism. More than the model – compliance with the fulfillment of the commitments signed. In intensive capital and long -term return, legal certainty is sovereignty.”says the institute.

According to the group, what is at stake “More than blocks to bid” It is the country’s credibility as Porto Seguro for strategic investments.

Read the full note:

“In an unequal energy transition scenario and growing geopolitical tensions, confidence in the state word has returned to the center of strategy. In the oil and gas sector, this confidence is not accessory – it is the basis of investment attraction, productive longevity and connection between resources and national project.

“Brazil has real assets: relevant reserves, competent operators and installed infrastructure. But none of them prosper under signs of instability or institutional opportunism. More than the model – concession or sharing – it is important to comply with the commitments signed. In intensive capital and long -term return, legal certainty is sovereignty.

“Recently, however, measures such as raw oil exports, changes in repetro and changes in the agreed methodology for the definition of reference prices have rekindled concerns about institutional predictability. Although the search for fiscal balance is legitimate, such initiatives lack qualified technical debate and a regulatory transition compatible with the size and ripening of the investments involved. The measures may even have a negative fiscal impact in the medium term, as they rub in and drive into investments in the sector.

“In this context, abrupt collections – such as unilateral revisions, exceptional taxes or untimely changes – should be treated with caution. Sustainable development requires coherence, not voluntarism.

“The thinking energy institute maintains that the state is more than a collector: it is a moral guarantor of predictability. Its authority affirms itself in the constancy with which it honors the celebrated pacts.

“We defend:

• That all review of instruments such as Repetro, Royalties and other governmental participation, sharing or pricing is based on orderly and predictable transition, balancing public interest and economic stability;
• That the sector’s tax policy integrates a country project, and does not respond to tax urgencies;
• May Brazil strengthen its reputation as a reliable regulatory port – active as strategic as its reserves.

“There is, however, a concrete and sustainable agenda to expand the collection in the sector, without breaking contracts or shaking confidence:

• Approve PL 2,159/2021, ensuring predictability and agility in environmental licensing, essential to the energy schedule;
• Raise the field recovery factor today by 11%, below the world average (30%). Reaching this level can generate 4.8 billion additional barrels and more than $ 92 billion in royalties, according to Firjan;
• Encourage the production of natural gas, with reduction of barriers to flow, processing and transportation, expanding supply and attracting demand;
• Guarantee tax immunity to exports, protecting competitiveness
• Brazilian and the attractiveness of the projects;
• Better structure the use of royalties and other participation, with governance, transparency and long -term vision, from MP 1291/2025;
• Evaluate the flexibility of the sharing regime, allowing more competition where the concession model is more effective;
• Reinforce ANP with technical and budgetary autonomy, as required by its legal mission;
• Integrate planning and regional development with large projects, perpetuating the positive effects of investments.

“Strategic environments are not created by decree. They require institutional clarity, historical patience and commitment to the future.

“More than blocks to bid, Brazil’s credibility is at stake – its ability to turn resources into power and energy into a national project.”