Government calculates R $ 20 billion with tax compensation in 2025 and 2026; Lula will have R $ 20.87 billion of revenues in the electoral government
The economic team estimates that the MP (Provisional Measure) of the Minister of Finance, will increase the government’s collection (PT) in R $ 31.42 billion In 2025 and 2026. Of this total, there will be R $ 20.87 billion in the election year.
The projection does not include the impacts of the IOF (Financial Operations Tax) decree, which also increases government collection. The Mayor, Deputy (Republicans-PB), and party leaders decided on Thursday (12.Jun.2025) to guide the urgent request of the PDL (Legislative Decree Project) that overthrow the decree.
The provisional measure has immediate force, but needs to be passed by Congress within 120 days (considering extensions). It goes through a mixed committee, vote in the House and then in the Senate.
The biggest impact in the 2 years will be due to changes in rules with tax compensations in the IRS, which will give R $ 20 billion in the period (R $ 10 billion in 2025 and R $ 10 billion in 2026).
There is R $ 2.60 billion With the taxation of fixed income securities that were exempt, such as the LCAS (agribusiness letters of credit) and LCIs (real estate credit letters). As it is a measure that increases the income tax, it has only effect by 2026.
The government expects to collect R $ 1.98 billion with the taxation of betsthe betting houses. There are R $ 285 million in 2025 and R $ 1.70 billion in 2026.
The highest collection of CSLL (Social Contribution on Net Income) of fintechs – financial sector technology entrepreneurs – will R $ 1.84 billion The Lula government in the 2 years (R $ 264 million in 2025 and R $ 1.58 billion in 2026).
Finally, the JCP (interest on equity), which will have an increase in taxation from 15% to 20%, will have an impact of R $ 4.99 billion. It has an effect only in 2026.
What is tax compensation
Compensation is a way for the entrepreneur to slaughter what has already been paid for tax debt. In this case, the company gains the right to reduce the amount to be paid with the IRS. The provisional measure makes the criteria more rigid to make this rebate.
The government understands that there was an increase in compensation based on documents of nonexistent collection or in Inapplicable Benefits to the company that made the request.
The economic team evaluates that the measure is an improvement, because there are companies that abuse compensation. There are two situations:
- When the company has the compensation, but payment was not identified via DARF (Federal Revenue Collection Document);
- When the company uses PIS-Cofins (Social Integration Program/ Social Security Financing Contribution) credits of an activity that is unrelated to the company’s area of activity.
For example, an industry company that is not a food business that uses presumed milk credit to compensate for taxes.
Companies use this device to postpone the payment of taxes. The provisional measure accelerates the collection of the IRS.
Previously, the rebate was done automatically and it was up to the tax authorities to verify that the company had, in fact, the right to tax compensation.
Non -declared seal
With the MP, the rebate will remain automatic, but it will lock the requirements that present these inconsistencies. Will have the seal of “unhealthy”For the company to be able to clarify the points of conflict.
The company that understands that it has the right will have to make a formal request to the tax authorities, which will be analyzed internally. The rule only applies to the requests that started from the publication of the Provisional Measure.
