MP measures came in line with anticipated; big question now is about Congress

by Andrea
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Much expected by the market, with significant changes in taxation. Now the market and investors focus on the chances of approving measures in Congress.

The decree recalls the IOF, reduces the fixed tax rate for legal entities from 0.95% to 0.38% and eliminates the fixed risk rate. For VGBL plans, IOF exemption will be exempt up to R $ 600,000 annually from 2026, with a rate of 5% over the surplus. By 2025, the limit will be $ 300,000 per insurer. FIDCS will have 0.38% IOF in the primary acquisition of quotas.

Already exchange rate operations for foreign capital return on corporate appearances (IDP) will have zero rate, as highlighted by consultancy LCA.

MP measures came in line with anticipated; big question now is about Congress

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The MP establishes a fixed rate of 17.5% of IR for financial income from 2026, including the profits on the stock exchange and organized counter, with exemption for quarterly sales up to R $ 60 thousand. The compensation between gains and fixed lace and variable losses expands. Cryptors are taxed at 17.5% for individuals and companies from Simples, with specific rules for deductions and compensation. Companies in Real Profit will have the gains included in the IRPJ and CSLL.

An earlier investments, such as LCIS, LCAS and CRIS, issued from January 2026, have a rate of 5%. Taxation on sports bets (BETS) rises from 12% to 18%. CSLL will have new ranges of 15%and 20%, extinguishing 9%, affecting fintechs and banks. The MP also fights abusive tax compensations, restricting improper PIS/COFINS credits.

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In addition, there will be an increase from 15% to 20% of IR on JCP and unification of IR rates on financial investments in 17.5%. As a news, the MP also brought some expense reduction measures: the inclusion of the sock foot in the minimum education expense, hardening of the rules for granting the defense insurance and sick pay.

The measures should bring a collection to the public coffers of R $ 10 billion this year, with the amount being provided for in the original IOF decree. For next year, it would be $ 20 billion. But other actions will be taken by the economic team.

According to the news, Lula called Congress leaders last night and would have even spoken to the mayor, Hugo Motta.

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“From here until the end of September, when the MP approaches the end of the term (120 days, discounted the recess period), the government will try to negotiate with Congress to MP and also new measures, such as the 10% reduction in tax exemptions,” says LCA.

As the consulting firm’s political analysts point out, the acceleration of the release of parliamentary amendments can help reduce the recent bad mood of Congress.

“But the main element to determine if the MP, the reduction of tax exemptions and, perhaps, even the fiscal framework, will survive will be the evolution of the government’s popularity. If there is any recovery of popularity, it will increase the chance that the negotiation of the government can disappear once and for all,” they point out.

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In Itaú’s view, with the significant resistance of Congress, it seems unlikely that the MP end the political turbulence that occurred after the announcement of the initial IOF decree two weeks ago.

According to Bradesco’s economic team, revenue measures came in line with what the government had anticipated on Sunday night and measures affecting the expenses.

“The estimates, for now, are inaccurate, but our preliminary estimates are aligned in the case of revenues. We will follow the progress of the legislative process in the coming weeks. It is worth remembering that provisional measures need to be approved within 120 days or lose their validity,” says the bank.

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