A senior Ukrainian official has revealed that the Russian Army aims to seize half of Ukraine by the end of 2026. However, It is very unlikely that Russian forces make such great advances in such a narrow period of timegiven the current offensive abilities of Russia and assuming the continuous flow of Western aid to Ukraine.
Who has done this forecast is Colonel Pavlo Palisa, deputy director of the Ukraine Presidential Office, who has declared the press that the Kremlin probably aspires to seize all of the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk for September 1, 2025, already create one damping zone along the northern border between Ukraine and Russia by the end of 2025. Palisa also said that those of the intention to occupy the entire Ukrainian territory on the Eastern shore (left) of the Dnieper River and seize the regions of Odessa and Mykolaiv by the end of 2026, thus depriving Ukraine of access to.
Western sources published A map On June 4 and 6 that, as reported, Palisa presented US officials and journalists in an appearance. The map suggests that Russia intends seize approximately 222,700 additional square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, reaching a total of 336,300 square kilometers by the end of 2026, almost double the approximately 162,000 square kilometers that Russia controlled at the beginning of its invasion On a large scale in 2022. To contextualize, the total area of Ukraine is about 603,500 square kilometers.
The palisa document of the alleged Russian operational objectives suggests that the Russian forces They will try to take and take advantage of positions In the regions of Zaporiyia and Dnipropetrovsk to support concurrent efforts to take the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions before September 1, 2025. The map indicates that the Russian Russian Command It does not intend to take the city of Zaporizhia for that date, It intends to take advantage of these positions to eventually capture it, aligning with the formal territorial demands of Russia for the entire Zaporiyia region.
It still is not clear how Russian forces could take the rest of the Donetsk region In three months or advance the 50 to 80 kilometers necessary From the current front line to the administrative limits of the region. In the last 15 months, the Russian advances between the outskirts of Avdiivka and the positions close to Pokrovsk They have been only 30 to 50 kilometers, A much slower pace than necessary to control all Donetsk before September 1.
The map, says the aforementioned medium also presupposes that the Russian forces can open a gap in the Cinturón Defensive Kostyantynivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyanskstrongly fortified -a fundamental fortified cities line for the defense of Ukraine in Donetsk -, a feat that Russian forces have not achieved since their expensive effort of a year to take concluded in May 2023.
The damping zone
Palisa’s evaluation also postulates that the Russian forces IThey would sequentially capture the rest of the Jersón region and create a “damping zone” Along the northern border of Ukraine by the end of 2025. The map suggests that the Russian forces would try 2025. “Achieving these objectives would probably require a Significant redesople of Russian troops From other parts of the front line, assuming that the West continues to support Ukraine, “says the digital.
Taking the rest of the Jersón region “would be especially difficult,” Since it requires crossing the Dnieper River, settled on the West shore (right), capture the city of Jersón and move towards the administrative borders of the region. Neither Ukrainian forces nor Russian have successfully carried out large -scale operations through the Dnieper River Since Russia withdrew to the east shore (left) of the Jersón region in November 2022. In addition, the defenses established by Ukraine on the west shore of Jersón will significantly hinder any Russian attempt to recover the rest of the region.
A series of simultaneous and intensified Russian offensives in the regions of northern Cernihiv, Sumy and Járkov would extend the strength and Russian resources along the entire line of front of a thousand kilometers, which would probably aggravate the existing operational limitations. “These operational objectives with the historical demands of Russia that Ukraine yields the illegally annexed regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporiyia and Jersón, as well as Crimea “warn the newspaper.
Facing 2026, Russian military plans go far beyond these formal demands, with the objective of seize important parts of the center, south and east of Ukraine. Palisa’s map suggests that the Russian forces intend to capture all Ukraine to the east of the Dnieper River, including the remaining uncompassed areas of the Zaporizhia region, in addition to all of the Chernihiv, Sumy, Járkov and Poltava regions; half of the regions of kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk; and parts of southern Ukraine west of the Dnieper River, including most of Odesa and Nikolaev’s regions.
To achieve these objectives, the Russian forces They would have to capture nine regional capitals currently unemployed: Zaporiyia, Odess whose combined population before the war exceeded 5.6 million people. It should be noted that Russia has not captured any regional capital since March 2022, when he seized the city of Jersón, which Ukraine recovered eight months later. This campaign would also require Russian forces They will advance more than 300 kilometers From the most remote points of the international border to kyiv in the next 18 months.
“Russian military campaign plans for 2025 and 2026 are consistent with the Kremlin narratives and the statements of prorruse figures. Kremlin officials have repeatedly demanded the creation of a “damping zone” along the northern border of Ukraine to protect Russian cities in the regions of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod of Ukrainian attacks, “says the medium.
Kremlin also invokes the concept of “Novorossiya“, referring to the entire east and southern Ukraine, to justify their expansive territorial ambitions. Russian officials have characterized the cities of Járkov and Odesa as” Russians. “Andrei Kartapolov, president of the Defense Committee of the Russian State Dum Járkov, Odesa and Nikolaev if you refuse to soon enter peace conversations.
Vladimir Balance, head of the occupation authorities of the Jersón region, installed by Russia, declared in April 2025 that LTo return of the West shore (right) of the Dnieper River to Russia is of the utmost importance and an absolute priority. He demanded that Russia control the sections of the Dnieper River that cross the regions of Jersón, Zaporiyia and Dnipropetrovsk, a requirement that extends beyond the currently occupied territory.
The vice president of the Russian Security Council, He recently reiterated his call for Russia to occupy most of Ukraine as a containment zonewith the exception of a small residual state in the regions of Volinia and Lviv, along the border with Poland. This underlines the broad territorial ambitions of Russia in the long term. While the palisa map does not indicate plans beyond 2026, It is unlikely that the Russian president, Putin, asks to control just over half of Ukraine if military conditions allowed these objectives.
