Under an unprecedented and expanded format, the new FIFA Club World Cup (International Football Federation), which begins next Saturday (14), in the United States, continues to have the European giants as the great favorites in the dispute, even with their players worn out of the season and the absence of current pensioners of major local leagues.
South Americans, in a second level along with teams from North America, Asia and Africa, have the first ambition to pass from the group stage, then aiming to target larger jumps in the competition.
Champions League champion with an overwhelming victory against Inter Milan, Luis Enrique’s PSG (Paris Saint-Germain) emerges as the biggest favorite to stay with the champion’s cup.
At least that is what the Optisst Supercomputer projections, a company specializing in sports statistics. According to the calculations, which took into account about 10,000 simulations, the Paris team has 18.5% chances of lifting the cup.
The current French champion, however, should not count on striker Ousmane Dembélé in the first matches of the tournament.
Team top scorer at Champions and the French Championship and quoted for the Golden Ball, Dembélé suffered a left thigh injury in the defeat of France to Spain in the Nations League semifinals, but traveled with the delegation and will have the situation monitored by the medical department.
Even without its main player, PSG still has names on the field with capacity to unbalance, such as the young ambideons striker Désiro Doué, 20, two goals author against Inter and elected the best of the game, and left-back Nuno Mendes, 22, who shone in the conquest of the League of Nations with Portugal.
Beside them, there are athletes with much more shooting such as defender and captain Marquinhos, 31, Italian goalkeeper Donnarumma, 26, and the Moroccan right back Hakimi, 26.
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City comes close behind OPTA statistics, with 17.8% likely to be champion.
The status was won much more by the retrospective of recent years than by the performance of the citizens last season.
This is because the English team did not raise any cups in the 2024/2025 season. At the Premier League, after reaching the quarter -to -date unpublished championship, City saw Arne Slot’s Liverpool interrupt his hegemony, finishing third and guaranteed vacancy in the next Champions League only in the last round.
In the main club tournament in Europe, it fell early to Real Madrid still in the round of 16.
For the dispute in the United States, besides having the return of midfielder Rodrigo, who was almost eight months in his soil due to a serious injury, the Manchester team also brought new reinforcements. The defender Rayan Aït-Nouri, highlighting Wolverhampton, and midfielder Tijani Reijnders, elected the best of his position with Milan in Italian.
The main signing, however, was French jewel Rayan Cherki, a 21-year-old dribbling half-acting midfielder formed at Lyon’s base and named Belgian Bruyne’s Belgian Kevin successor, who left the club to Napoli.
Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, Real Madrid and Chelsea follow the teams most likely to keep the title. They have 12.8%, 12.3%, 9.8% and 8.4% chances, respectively, according to OPTA projections.
Of the four, the German team is the only current local league champion. Under the command of Vincent Kompany, Bayern won the Bundesliga two rounds in advance, resuming the title of Leverkusen’s hands.
Despite the broad domain in Germany – Bayern was champion in 12 of the last 13 editions of the Bundesliga – the team has the challenge of resuming the protagonism in European football. His last Championship final was in the 2019/20 season, when he defeated PSG.
For this, the Germans have the goals of Harry Kane. The English team striker was the team’s top scorer of the season, with 38 goals in 46 matches, winning the first career title at 31.
Inter Milan, in turn, tries to collect the shards after a season when he hit the post in the main competitions and ended up without title.
In addition to the harsh defeat for PSG at Champions, Internazionale also took the deputy in Italian, after starring in a fierce dispute with Napoli – Naples’s team became national champion only in the 38th and last round, with only one point of advantage.
The Milanese team had already stayed with the vice also in the Italian supercop, when taking the turn against Milan after opening 2-0.
The Italians still suffered an important low with the departure of coach Simone Inzaghi, who headed for Saudi Al Hilal. For his place, the idol of Clube Cristian Chivu arrived, which begins the reconstruction with one of the pillars the Argentine Lautaro Martinez, who scored 22 goals in 49 games.
In the same tune, Real Madrid had a season that left no longing in Spain. The meringues lost all clashes against Barcelona’s rival and saw the Catalan team stay with the Spanish and Spanish Super Cup titles.
With the season short of expectations leading to Carlo Ancelotti’s departure to the Brazilian team, the Madrid club arrives at the World Cup under the technical command of Xabi Alonso. The club also reinforced itself with Liverpool right-back Alexander-Arnold, and expects to reap the first fruits of an attack by Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, Bellingham and Mbappé.
Chelsea, in turn, made a season without great shine in the Premier League, ending only fourth in the standings, but got a consolation title by hitting Real Betis 4-1, in the turn, in the decision of the Conference League. The highlight of the team led by Enzo Maresca is the English striker Cole Palmer, top scorer of the team with 15 goals in 46 matches.
Among Brazilians in the match, Palmeiras and Flamengo appear with 0.3% chances of being champions, according to OPTA accounts.
Vice-Constate against Corinthians and fourth placed until the 11th round of the Brazilian, before the pause for the World Cup, Alviverde is considered the Brazilian with the most chances of beating the confrontation against Europeans in the group stage. Abel Ferreira’s team takes the debut O Porto, third in the Portuguese League, right behind leaders Sporting and Benfica.
The competition also marks the farewell of Stephen, which should form the starting attack alongside Vitor Roque and Paulinho.
Carioca champion on Fluminense and Brazilian leader before the break, Flamengo can also have the farewell of midfielder Gerson, who interests Russia’s Zenit. On the other hand, the red-black cast gains the reinforcement of Italian-Brazilian steering wheel Jorginho, who arrives after a successful career in Europe.
Coach Filipe Luís still needs to define the situation of Bruno Henrique, after the striker is reported by the MP-DF (Public Prosecutor of the Federal District) for crimes of estelionato and sports fraud.
Already Botafogo, current Brazilian champion and the Copa Libertadores, and Fluminense, have a 0% chance of staying with the world title, according to Opta projections.
Sixth in the Brazilian, the team of General Severiano had a holiday start that left fans frustrated, with the loss of important pieces and a poor campaign in the state. For the World Cup, the team reinforced themselves with strikers Arthur Cabral, coming from Benfica, and Joaquin Correa, from Inter Milan.
Vice-Constant and fifth in Nacional, Fluminense deposits the hope of goals in the return of striker Germán Cano, the club’s top scorer, with 14 goals in 23 games, and out of action since mid-April due to an injury. Tricolor das Laranjeiras also reinforced the arrival of Venezuelan Soteldo, with whom coach Renato Gaúcho has worked at Grêmio.
