Since the new census showed that those aged ten or older have emerged many reports and analyzes trying to explain the group’s “slower growth”. The surprise is understandable: there was a speech installed for years that evangelicals would soon surpass Catholics and become a majority. But perhaps it is the case of questioning the current pace and more the premise of these expectations.
The narrative of not born of the latest data, but from a linear projection that has been circulating since the past decade, according to which would be to be extrapolated the accelerated growth of previous decades to predict a country mostly. These predictions were easily absorbed by public debate and amplified by the believer presence on social networks. As the journalist showed, Brazilian evangelicalism is highly vocal and well organized in digital environments, which reinforces the perception of an irreversible advance. But a religious field more present in networks is not necessarily a field in constant growth. The symbolic reach is not confused with demographic strength.
Na, the issue of expectation formation was faced in depth. Classic models of adaptive expectations, such as Friedman’s, showed that agents often project the future based on the recent behavior of the variables. If something grows at a certain rate, the intuitive tendency is to assume that it will continue to grow that way. Luke’s criticism and rational expectations theory drew attention to a problem: when the institutional or informational environment changes, or when there is a strategic response from other agents, simply prolong the past standard generates bad predictions. Expectations need to adjust.
In the case of the inevitability discourse was born exactly of a poorly calibrated adaptive expectation. The strong growth of previous decades – driven by urbanization and a dynamic evangelical field – was automatically extrapolated as a permanent trend. But the religious field is, by definition, subject to cultural, political and institutional shocks. Even in economic phenomena, trajectories rarely remain stable in complex social contexts. In the case of religions, this is even more true: movements generate counter-moving, and institutions learn and react.
What the census revealed, therefore, was not a sudden reversal or brake, but a process of natural accommodation. , a sociologist who has been studying the theme for years, defends precisely this idea: we must expect the percentage of evangelicals to tend to stabilize around a third of the population, something that is consistent with historical standards and the response capacity of competing institutions. The history of the reform offers a good illustration. If the European Protestant growth had followed its initial impetus linearly, the entire continent would be Protestant today. But the Catholic counter-reaction reacted, created new institutions, and regained ground. It is a reminder that institutions adapt and that social movements do not evolve straight.
In the Brazilian case, Catholicism has also been reorganizing. Also, other segments. All of this suggests a scenario of competition and adaptation, not unidirectional march.
Therefore, before we project new dates for the supposed evangelical majority, we may have to revisit the foundations of past projections. Poorly calibrated expectations, when amplified by. A more rigorous debate about the trajectory of religion in Brazil begins there: with less hurry to announce inevitable future and more attention to what data and history really tell us.
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