The president () keeps the leadership in the first round of rivals in the simulation made by the next year’s election, but lost the advantage he had about candidates on his right in a second round of the election.
The evolution assessed by the date of the previous research, to the survey done on Tuesday (10) and Wednesday (11) with 2,004 voters in 136 cities. The margin of error is two percentage points for more or less.
Against all rivals in 5 of 6 scenarios presented, the president maintains the same level of voting intention, floating from 36% to 38%. It is a cool thing about your assessment, done in the same research, which considering it great or good.
This stems from the fragmentation of the application board, with only Lula pontificating in the left field. Datafolha simulated a hypothesis in which the president does not compete, putting the minister (PT) instead – and marking 23%, losing to the ineligible ().
The former president, to apply in 2030 for conspiring against the electoral system in 2022, technically tied with Lula, being one point below-36% to 35% for the petista.
In this scenario, governors on the right are well below :. (PSD-PR) has 7%(new-MG) marks 5%, and (-GO), also 5%.
Datafolha maintained this crack in all simulations, given that any applications depend less on the anointing of the former president. The strongest name among governors, (Republicans-SP) enters the direct quota of the former chief, which also includes three Bolsonaro surnames affiliated with PL potentially on the track.
In the scenario with Tarcisio, Lula hits him for 37% to 21%. Already with former first lady Michelle, the petista wins 37% to 26%. The president marks 38% against the Senator (RJ), son of the former president, who has the same 20% of his brother Deputy Eduardo (SP)-Contra who the petista has 37%.
In the only scenario without Lula and Haddad, the Finance Minister loses to Bolsonaro for 37% to 23%. In spontaneous research, without the rivals name, it obviouss: the division between the president (16%) and predecessor (18%), much by reflection of polarization and the “recall” of the electorate.
Still in the first round, weighs the rejection factor. They would not vote at all in Lula 46%, compared to 43% that say the same as Bolsonaro. The family ties in terms: 32%say they do not support Eduardo, 31%, Flávio, and 30%, Michelle. Haddad follows with 29%, followed by Ratinho Jr. (19%), Zema (18%), Caiado (15%) and Tarcisio (15%).
The scenario is more hazy to Lula’s claims when Datafolha
In April, he beat Bolsonaro for 49% to 40%. Now, there is a draw, with the predecessor marking 45% and the current agent, 44%. Such equality is in the dispute with the eligible Tarcisio, which went from 48% to 39% in favor of Lula to 43% to 42%.
Michelle also approached: from 38% to 42%, while Lula fell from 50% to 46%. Against Bolsonaro’s children, the president has a broader advantage: he would defeat Eduardo by 46% to 38%, and Flávio, by 47% to 38%.
Finally, a Haddad-Bolsonaro clash would again be overcome by the name of the PL: 45% to 40%, reversing 45% to 41% in favor of the minister registered in April.
The numbers crystallize the scenario as perceived by political forces, in which Lula continues to reign on the left, despite the fall in his approval. And the weight of Bolsonaro’s name, even without the former president being able to be a candidate as he insists it will be.
This, which would have in Tarcisio today the most competitive bet. The governor, jealous of the Bolsonarist electorate, would only go out to Planalto if he had the explicit support of his godfather.
But this one has other plans, such as trying to remain relevant as a certain conviction in the case of the coup plot, and the threat of launching his surname in the form of some relative rolls the game to the rest of his right.
