By the end of this week, after literally announced that he would do so, the market immediately responded for oil prices-Brent rose 13% from Thursday to Friday.
Of course, coming public to speak from the market perspective is always secondary, the humanitarian issue will always be more important. However, here is the space that I, Murned, I have explicitly express my opinions that are commonly implicit in prices.
It’s still early, but a climb of war is still seen as a syrup scenario. The conflict must remain focused.
However, the price of oil is an important vector of inflation for the world, precisely at a time when investors yearn for their fall and, as a result, cuts in interest rates. When performing a mental exercise, I can reach my following reactions:
The stock market, which came from a reasonable recovery, must suffer in the short term. Oil, which was once a band of $ 60 to 70, may negotiate between $ 70 and 80 (more likely to 75).
The result would be inflationary pressure that should help keep it persistent, interest curves should open and in the next FOMC (Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee), who was more excited may not be anymore.
About technical movements ahead, we should see this…
The second discussion that happens in the corridors of the market is whether this would be a proxy war, that is, as much as an Israeli attack, if it would not be a movement that defends American interests.
You can’t put your hand on the fire on this subject, let alone wear the coat of geopolitical expert.
It may even be that Trump did not oppose the attack, but for Israel’s movements and characteristics as a country, perhaps they rely more in the US than the other way around.
Continues after advertising
Meanwhile, in the midst of confusion, the tariff discussion should be in the background.
We will see the next episodes, the world parked with a spine and the S&P 500 stopped at 6,000 points.
